Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Donald J. Trump do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?
To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Mr. Trump pull out a Brexit-esque victory on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Hillary Clinton win.
| Area Of Interest | Projected Impact |
|---|---|
| Personal Taxes | 33% top Individual Tax Rates for income over $112,500 |
| Corporate Taxes | Discouraging inversions through taxation in order to grow the economy |
| Stock Market | Political predecessors registered a 3.28% increase of the market (adjusted for inflation) (Divided Congress) |
| Unemployment | Points to energy as a source for new jobs in the future |
| Education | Pledged to invest $20 billion of federal dollars into a voucher program for students to attend school of their choice and repeal common core |
| Social Security | Has pledged to save Social Security without cuts |
| Health Care | Repeal and replace the ACA |
| Minimum Wage | Increase the minimum wage to $10/h but let states set the minimum wage as appropriate for them |
Personal Taxes
| Annual Income | Trump’s Proposed Tax Rate | Current Rate |
|---|---|---|
| $415,050+ | 33% | 39.6% |
| $413,350 to $415,049.99 | 33% | 35% |
| $190,150 to $413,349.99 | 33% | 33% |
| $112,500 to $190,149.99 | 33% | 28% |
| $91,150 to $112,499.99 | 25% | 28% |
| $37,650 to $91,149.99 | 25% | 25% |
| $37,500 to $37,649.99 | 25% | 15% |
| $9,275 to $37,449.99 | 12% | 15% |
| $0 to $9,274.99 | 12% | 10% |
- Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
- Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Trump): -$341B
Other Notable Tax Policy Changes
| Issue | Trump’s Stance | Trump’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Estate Tax | Repeal it Tax capital gains held until death and valued over $10 million, except for small businesses and family farms. Prohibit contributions of appreciated assets into a private charity established by the decedent or decedent’s relatives. | “The estate tax has been a disaster; it's double taxation.” |
| Caregiver Benefits | Full deductibility of average-cost child care expenses. Above-the-line deduction for children under age 13 that will be capped at state average for age of child, and for eldercare for a dependent. Exclusion will not be available to taxpayers with total income over $500,000 (married-joint or $250,000 (single). | “My plan will also help reduce the cost of child care by allowing parents to fully deduct the average cost of child care spending from their taxes.” |
| Itemized Deductions | Increase the standard deduction to $30,000 for joint filers and $15,000 for single filers Cap itemized deductions at $200,000 for married-joint filers or $100,000 for single filers No change for mortgage interest or charitable contributions | Info |
| Retirement Accounts | No stated position | No stated position |
| Alternative Minimum Tax | Eliminate it | “[We should] get rid of the death tax, as well as the horrific alternative minimum tax.” |
Ask the Experts
Shawn Novak
Clinical Associate Professor in the School Of Public Affairs at Arizona State University
Read More
Clinical Associate Professor in the School Of Public Affairs at Arizona State University
Read More
Jack Borke
Professor Emeritus of Accounting at University of Wisconsin-Platteville
Read More
Professor Emeritus of Accounting at University of Wisconsin-Platteville
Read More
Andrew Schmidt
Associate Professor of Accountancy and Poole Scholar in the Poole College of Management at North Carolina State University
Read More
Associate Professor of Accountancy and Poole Scholar in the Poole College of Management at North Carolina State University
Read More
Corporate Taxes
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Top Corporate Tax Rate | 15% |
| Top Pass-Through Rate | 15% (new business tax within the personal tax code) |
| Taxation of future foreign earnings | Immediate worldwide taxation; repeal of deferral |
| Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings | 10% |
| Inversions | Discourage inversions to grow the economy |
| Offshoring | 35% tariff on goods imported into the United States by U.S. companies that have moved overseas |
| Cost Recovery | 100% expensing |
| Business Interest Expense | “Reasonable cap” on deductibility |
| R&D Expenses | No stated position |
| Derivatives | No stated position |
| Other Business Provisions | Reducing or eliminating corporate loopholes that cater to special interests, as well as deductions made unnecessary or redundant by the new lower tax on corporations |
Ask the Experts
Joshua D. Rosenberg
Professor of Law, University of San Francisco School of Law
Read More
Professor of Law, University of San Francisco School of Law
Read More
James N. Mohs
Assistant Professor in the Department of Accounting, Taxation and Law at University of New Haven
Read More
Assistant Professor in the Department of Accounting, Taxation and Law at University of New Haven
Read More
Stock Market
Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors
- Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 3.28% annual rate with a Republican president and a divided Congress.
- The S&P 500 has grown at a 16.36% annual rate with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
George Bittlingmayer
Wagnon Distinguished Professor of Finance at University of Kansas School of Business
Read More
Wagnon Distinguished Professor of Finance at University of Kansas School of Business
Read More
Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Distinguished Professor of Finance, and Goldyne & Irwin Hearsh Chair in Money and Banking at University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson School of Management
Read More
Distinguished Professor of Finance, and Goldyne & Irwin Hearsh Chair in Money and Banking at University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson School of Management
Read More
Mary E. Lovely
Chair of the International Relations Program, Melvin A. Eggers Faculty Scholar, and Professor of Economics in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University
Read More
Chair of the International Relations Program, Melvin A. Eggers Faculty Scholar, and Professor of Economics in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University
Read More
Unemployment
| Initiative | More Info |
|---|---|
| Relax Federal Regulations | Pro-growth tax plan Modern regulatory framework America-first trade policy Energy independence plan “Penny plan” |
| Make the U.S. the World’s Leading Energy Producer | Use energy to create jobs in the future. Make American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal of the United States. Unleash America’s $50 trillion in untapped oil, natural gas and “clean coal” reserves. |
Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors
- Historically, the unemployment has increased by an average of 0.21 percentage points with a Republican president and divided Congress.
- The unemployment rate has increased by an average of 0.22 percentage point with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
Jack Fiorito
Department Chair and J. Frank Dame Professor of Management at Florida State University, College of Business
Read More
Department Chair and J. Frank Dame Professor of Management at Florida State University, College of Business
Read More
Joseph Ritter
Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Economics, and Director of Graduate Studies at University of Minnesota
Read More
Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Economics, and Director of Graduate Studies at University of Minnesota
Read More
Education
| Issue | Trump’s Position | Trump’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| School Voucher Program | Pledged to invest $20 billion in a voucher program to support school choice | “As president, I will establish the national goal of providing school choice to every American child living in poverty. If we can put a man on the moon, dig out the Panama Canal and win two world wars, then I have no doubt that we as a nation can provide school choice to every disadvantaged child in America.” |
| Charter Schools | Supports them | “Competition is why I'm very much in favor of school choice. Let schools compete for kids. I guarantee that if you forced schools to get better or close because parents didn't want to enroll their kids there, they would get better.” |
| Teachers’ Unions | Criticizes them | “Our public schools have grown up in a competition-free zone, surrounded by a very high union wall. Why aren’t we shocked at the results?” |
| Common Core | Promises to get rid of it | “I have been consistent in my opposition to Common Core. Get rid of Common Core.” |
| Debt-Free College | Doesn’t support it. (Wants to pressure institutions with large endowments to spend more on students, thus reducing tuition costs.) | “Instead these universities use the money to pay their administrators, to put donors’ names on their buildings, or just store the money, keep it and invest it. But they should be using the money on students, for tuition, for student life and for student housing. That’s what it’s supposed to be for.” |
Ask the Experts
William Elliott III
Director of the Center on Assets, Education, and Inclusion at University of Kansas, School of Social Welfare
Read More
Director of the Center on Assets, Education, and Inclusion at University of Kansas, School of Social Welfare
Read More
Jay Schalin
Director of Policy Analysis at The John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy
Read More
Director of Policy Analysis at The John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy
Read More
Wes Yin
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
Read More
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
Read More
Marc Pilisuk
Professor Emeritus at The University of California and Adjunct Professor at Saybrook University
Read More
Professor Emeritus at The University of California and Adjunct Professor at Saybrook University
Read More
Ana M. Martínez Alemán
Professor of Higher Education and Chair of the Educational Leadership and Higher Education Department at Boston College
Read More
Professor of Higher Education and Chair of the Educational Leadership and Higher Education Department at Boston College
Read More
Nathan Daun-Barnett
Associate Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy in the Graduate School of Education at the University at Buffalo
Read More
Associate Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy in the Graduate School of Education at the University at Buffalo
Read More
Social Security
| Issue | Trump’s Stance | Trump’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Retirement Age | Opposed to raising it | “It’s my intention to leave Social Security the way it is. Not increase the age and to leave it as is.” |
| Benefit Cuts | Pledges to save Social Security without cuts. | “People signed up for Social Security; it’s kind of like a pledge. The people who have their Social Security, with me, are going to keep their Social Security.” |
| Benefit Increases | No position | No position |
| Cost-Of-Living Adjustments | No changes | Info |
| Payroll Tax | Against raising it | "The average worker today pays 31.5% of their wages to income and payroll taxes." |
| Privatization | No position | “Privatization would be good for all of us. Directing Social Security funds into personal accounts invested in real assets would swell national savings, pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into jobs and the economy”. |
Ask the Experts
Michael A. Lewis
Associate Professor in the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College
Read More
Associate Professor in the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College
Read More
Lisa A. Gennetian
Research Professor at the Institute of Human Development and Social Change at New York University, Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development
Read More
Research Professor at the Institute of Human Development and Social Change at New York University, Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development
Read More
Richard F. Keevey
Senior Policy Fellow in the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Read More
Senior Policy Fellow in the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Read More
David Pate
Associate Professor in the Helen Bader School of Social Welfare and in the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Founder of the Center for Family Policy and Practice
Read More
Associate Professor in the Helen Bader School of Social Welfare and in the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Founder of the Center for Family Policy and Practice
Read More
Health Care
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Health Insurance | Require price transparency from health care providers Allow for the sale of health insurance across state lines Allow for tax-deductible health insurance premiums Expand use of health savings accounts |
| Medicare | Voiced support for allowing Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices |
| Medicaid | Block grants for Medicaid to the states |
| Affordable Care Act | Repeal and replace the ACA |
Ask the Experts
Mónika López Anuarbe
Assistant Professor of Economics at Connecticut College
Read More
Assistant Professor of Economics at Connecticut College
Read More
Sara Markowitz
Professor of Economics at Emory University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
Read More
Professor of Economics at Emory University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
Read More
Devin Schindler
Professor of Health Care and Constitutional Law at Western Michigan University, Cooley Law School
Read More
Professor of Health Care and Constitutional Law at Western Michigan University, Cooley Law School
Read More
John F. McCracken
Clinical Professor of Healthcare Leadership & Management in the Naveen Jindal School of Management at the University of Texas at Dallas
Read More
Clinical Professor of Healthcare Leadership & Management in the Naveen Jindal School of Management at the University of Texas at Dallas
Read More
Steven K. Ashby
Full Clinical Professor and Coordinator of the Global Labor Studies Undergraduate Program in the School of Labor and Employment Relations at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Read More
Full Clinical Professor and Coordinator of the Global Labor Studies Undergraduate Program in the School of Labor and Employment Relations at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Read More
Minimum Wage
| Issue | Current Minimum Wage | Trump’s Recommended Minimum Wage | Raise’s Effect on Taxpayers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum Wage|$7.25|$10, but believes states should set the minimum wage as appropriate for them|Approximately 500,000 jobs would be lost |
- The following states have a minimum wage of $7.50 or higher: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
- California, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.
Ask the Experts
Sanford M. Jacoby
Distinguished Research Professor of Management, Public Policy, and History at UCLA Anderson School of Management
Read More
Distinguished Research Professor of Management, Public Policy, and History at UCLA Anderson School of Management
Read More
Ken Jacobs
Chair of the Center for Labor Research and Education at University of California, Berkeley
Read More
Chair of the Center for Labor Research and Education at University of California, Berkeley
Read More
Wes Yin
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
Read More
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
Read More
David L. Lindauer
Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College
Read More
Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College
Read More
Sources: This report is based on WalletHub projections as well as data from Tax Foundation, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, the White House, EY, Donald J. Trump for President, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, The Slate Group, Forbes, United States Department of Labor, The Washington Post, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research and National Conference of State Legislatures.
