June 2019 Fed Rate Cut Probability & Analysis
After a string of nine interest-rate increases that took the Federal Reserve’s target rate from near zero in December 2015 up to a range of 2.25% - 2.5%, the Fed is poised to reduce rates for the first time since the Great Recession. Exactly what impact such a move will have on consumers’ wallets and the economy more broadly remains to be seen. But the hope is that lower rates will prolong what is already the longest economic expansion on record. At the very least, we can expect people with credit card debt to save hundreds of millions of dollars on interest.
To help shed some light on what we can expect from interest rates in the near future and how Americans feel about the prospect of a Fed rate cut, WalletHub conducted a nationally representative survey and assembled some relevant research. You can find the survey results below.
Fed Rate Decrease Odds & Predictions
Most signs point to the Federal Reserve decreasing its target rate by September 2019. Below, you can see what the latest research and experts consulted by WalletHub say will happen.
Fed Rate Cut Probability
5 Key Stats About Fed Rate Cuts/Hikes:
- Rate-Cut Odds: There is a 23% chance the Fed will reduce its target interest rate on June 19. There is an 87% chance of a rate cut by July 31, and the odds rise to 97% by September 18.
- Recent Rake Hikes: The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate nine times since December 2015, with no decreases.
- Consumer Support: 76% of people support a Fed rate cut, and around the same percentage think it would be good for the economy.
- Credit Card Savings: 76% of Americans say their credit card interest rates are too high. Credit card users would save roughly $1.6 billion in interest if the Fed cuts its target rate. The average household currently owes $8,390.
- Trump vs. the Fed: 7 in 10 people say the Federal Reserve knows how to grow the economy better than President Trump.
Full Details Overall
Should the Federal Reserve drop interest rates this month?
Do you think your current interest rates on your loans are too high?
|They're just right||14%|
Do you think that a drop in your credit card interest rate will be good for the economy?
Do you think your credit card APR is too high currently?
|It's just right||9%|
Is it good for the economy when the Federal Reserve drops interest rates?
|I Don’t Know||22%|
Is it good for your wallet when the Federal Reserve drops interest rates?
|I Don’t Know||12%|
Who best knows how to grow the American economy?
|The Federal Reserve||67%|
If the Federal Reserve drops interest rates, how confident will you be in the economy?
|Same amount of confidence||41%|
When the Federal Reserve drops interest rates, which of the following become less expensive:
|Cell Phone Bill||4%|
Do you agree with President Trump that it's time for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates?
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