Gun sales are down in 2022, with a 12.6% year-over-year drop in May, though sales are still well above pre-pandemic levels. While some people might celebrate the decline in sales, it could put strain on state economies relying heavily on the firearms industry. By one estimate, guns contributed more than $70 billion to the U.S. economy and generated nearly $7.9 billion in federal and state taxes in 2021.
This year, gun crime has remained a high-profile political issue, and there have been over 230 mass shootings, including at an elementary school in Texas and grocery store in New York. In response, lawmakers have renewed calls for stricter gun laws, and New York has already passed new laws such as raising the minimum age to buy a semiautomatic rifle to 21, and has revised its existing red-flag laws.
In light of the recent developments in the firearms industry and debates on how, if at all, it should be restricted, WalletHub compared the economic impact of guns on each of the 50 states to determine which among them leans most heavily on the gun business, both directly for jobs and political contributions and indirectly through ownership.
Main Findings
State Dependency on the Gun Industry
| Overall Rank* | State | Total Score | Firearms Industry | Gun Prevalence | Gun Politics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idaho | 85.11 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| 2 | Wyoming | 81.09 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 3 | Kentucky | 75.67 | 20 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | South Dakota | 75.19 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| 5 | Montana | 74.27 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 72.61 | 3 | 19 | 11 |
| 7 | Alaska | 65.62 | 14 | 24 | 8 |
| 8 | North Dakota | 64.57 | 19 | 25 | 1 |
| 9 | Missouri | 64.36 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 64.10 | 30 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Tennessee | 63.52 | 22 | 3 | 18 |
| 12 | Alabama | 62.40 | 27 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | South Carolina | 61.71 | 18 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Utah | 60.47 | 7 | 31 | 17 |
| 15 | Nebraska | 59.53 | 16 | 41 | 1 |
| 16 | West Virginia | 59.52 | 31 | 14 | 13 |
| 17 | Indiana | 59.39 | 32 | 4 | 20 |
| 18 | Louisiana | 58.89 | 33 | 33 | 7 |
| 19 | Mississippi | 58.25 | 12 | 21 | 16 |
| 20 | Kansas | 56.04 | 13 | 17 | 25 |
| 21 | New Hampshire | 54.57 | 2 | 6 | 49 |
| 22 | Minnesota | 52.39 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 23 | Maine | 52.33 | 8 | 26 | 33 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 52.24 | 38 | 16 | 23 |
| 25 | Oregon | 52.22 | 11 | 18 | 28 |
| 26 | North Carolina | 52.16 | 21 | 32 | 22 |
| 27 | Ohio | 52.10 | 26 | 22 | 24 |
| 28 | Iowa | 50.17 | 28 | 38 | 15 |
| 29 | Texas | 50.15 | 17 | 40 | 19 |
| 30 | Pennsylvania | 47.07 | 25 | 30 | 27 |
| 31 | Vermont | 46.69 | 36 | 10 | 31 |
| 32 | Arizona | 41.67 | 9 | 28 | 48 |
| 33 | Washington | 40.13 | 39 | 36 | 29 |
| 34 | Michigan | 40.07 | 34 | 39 | 35 |
| 35 | Florida | 38.22 | 41 | 42 | 26 |
| 36 | Colorado | 37.47 | 24 | 27 | 44 |
| 37 | Nevada | 34.92 | 23 | 34 | 45 |
| 38 | New Mexico | 34.64 | 42 | 20 | 41 |
| 39 | Illinois | 34.17 | 46 | 23 | 37 |
| 40 | Delaware | 31.93 | 43 | 29 | 40 |
| 41 | Virginia | 31.29 | 37 | 35 | 46 |
| 42 | Georgia | 30.88 | 35 | 37 | 47 |
| 43 | Connecticut | 29.94 | 29 | 43 | 43 |
| 44 | Massachusetts | 27.69 | 40 | 47 | 39 |
| 45 | Maryland | 25.48 | 44 | 45 | 32 |
| 46 | California | 23.78 | 49 | 44 | 38 |
| 47 | New York | 22.16 | 47 | 48 | 36 |
| 48 | Hawaii | 16.23 | 50 | 50 | 30 |
| 49 | New Jersey | 14.86 | 48 | 49 | 42 |
| 50 | Rhode Island | 11.57 | 45 | 46 | 49 |
Notes: *No. 1 = Most Dependent
With the exception of “Total Score,” all of the columns in the table above depict the relative rank of that state, where a rank of 1 represents the highest dependency on the gun industry and the biggest political contributions, respectively.
- Most
- T-1. New Hampshire
- T-1. Wyoming
- T-1. Idaho
- T-1. Arkansas
- 5. Utah
- Fewest
- 46. Oklahoma
- 47. New Jersey
- 48. New York
- 49. Delaware
- 50. Hawaii
- Highest
- 1. New York
- 2. Connecticut
- 3. Massachusetts
- 4. New Jersey
- 5. Kansas
- Lowest
- 46. Montana
- 47. Alabama
- 48. Maine
- 49. West Virginia
- 50. New Mexico
- Highest
- T-1. New Hampshire
- T-1. Wyoming
- T-1. Idaho
- T-1. Arkansas
- 5. Minnesota
- Lowest
- 46. North Dakota
- 47. Oklahoma
- 48. New Mexico
- 49. Delaware
- 50. Hawaii
- Highest
- T-1. New Hampshire
- T-1. Wyoming
- T-1. Idaho
- T-1. Arkansas
- 5. Minnesota
- Lowest
- 46. Oklahoma
- 47. Kansas
- 48. New Mexico
- 49. Hawaii
- 50. Delaware
- Highest
- 1. Montana
- 2. Wyoming
- 3. West Virginia
- 4. Idaho
- 5. Alaska
- Lowest
- 46. New York
- 47. Rhode Island
- 48. Hawaii
- 49. Massachusetts
- 50. New Jersey
- Most
- T-1. Kentucky
- T-1. Illinois
- T-1. Utah
- T-1. Indiana
- 5. Alabama
- Fewest
- 46. California
- 47. Rhode Island
- 48. New Jersey
- 49. New York
- 50. Hawaii
State Dependency on the Gun Industry vs. the Number of Mass Shootings
Note: The State Dependency on the Gun Industry refers to each state’s overall dependency (rank 1 = highest), while the Number of Mass Shootings refers to incidents in the 2020-June 2022 time frame, where four or more people were shot and/or killed (not including the shooter), at the same general time and location (rank 1 = most mass shootings).
Ask the Experts
As the gun debate continues, we turned to a panel of experts for their thoughts on the following key questions:
- Do we need new gun laws or do we just need to enforce the laws already on the books?
- Are there policies that would successfully reduce gun violence and enjoy bipartisan support?
- What actions, if any, do you expect the current administration to take with regard to gun ownership?
- Are there any new or promising technologies that may reduce gun deaths?
- Can state or local gun laws be effective? What works?
Ask the Experts
Ph.D. – Assistant Professor, Criminal Justice, Fitchburg State University
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Ph.D. – Marshall H. Becker Collegiate Professor, Department of Health Behavior and Health Education, Department of Psychology, Combined Program in Education and Psychology, University of Michigan
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Ph.D. – Professors of Economics, Quinnipiac University
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Professor, UC Berkeley School of Law
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Executive Director, Million Hoodies Movement for Justice
Read More
Methodology
In order to identify the states that most and least depend on the gun industry for economic stability, WalletHub compared the 50 states and across three key dimensions: 1) Firearms Industry, 2) Gun Prevalence and 3) Gun Politics.
We evaluated those dimensions using 16 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the “most gun-industry-dependent” state.
We then determined each state’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores to rank-order our sample.
Firearms Industry – Total Points: 35
- Firearms-Industry Jobs per 10,000 Residents: Double Weight (~6.36 Points)
- Firearms and Ammunition Dealers & Importers per Capita: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Firearms and Ammunition Manufacturers per Capita: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Gun Shows per Capita: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Average Wages & Benefits in Firearms Industry: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Total Firearms-Industry Output per Capita: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Total Federal Business Taxes Paid by Firearms Industry per Capita: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
- Gun Industry Immunity: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
Note: This binary metric considers the presence or absence of a state statute that protects gun manufacturers and dealers from liability lawsuits. It is similar to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, or PLCAA. - Strictness of State Gun Laws: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
Note: “State Gun Laws” is a composite metric that includes mental-health records reporting, private-sale background checks, open-carry regulations, concealed carry regulations, prohibition of access to domestic abusers, disarming dangerous people laws, child access prevention, and waiting periods before gun transfers. - Minimum Age to Purchase & Possess Firearms: Full Weight (~3.18 Points)
Note: This is a composite metric that includes: - Purchase of a Handgun: Binary metric: 21 years = 1; all other than 21 years = 0
- Purchase of a Long Gun: Binary metric: 21 years = 1; all other than 21 years = 0
- Possession of a Handgun: Binary metric: 21 years = 1; all other than 21 years = 0
- Possession of Long Gun: Binary metric: 21 years = 1; all other than 21 years = 0
-
Gun Prevalence – Total Points: 35
- Gun Ownership Rate: Full Weight (~8.75 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the average proportion of adults living in a household with a firearm. - Gun Sales per 1,000 Residents: Full Weight (~8.75 Points)
Note: Approximated using National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data. - Gun Ads for Private Buying & Selling: Full Weight (~8.75 Points)
Note: This composite metric uses data from with Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund to measure private-seller for-sale ads for firearms per capita and want ads seeking to purchase from private sellers per capita. - Google Search Interest for Gun Sales: Full Weight (~8.75 Points)
Note: This metric measures Google search interest for the terms “buy gun” and “gun shop.”
Gun Politics – Total Points: 30
- Gun-Control Contributions to Congressional Members per Capita: Full Weight (~15.00 Points)
- Gun-Rights Contributions to Congressional Members per Capita: Full Weight (~15.00 Points)
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau, National Shooting Sports Foundation, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, Gun Show Trader, Google Trends, the RAND Corporation, Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, and the Center for Responsive Politics.