The U.S. has reduced unemployment from record highs during the COVID-19 pandemic to near record lows. Now, however, high inflation and the looming threat of a recession could cause unemployment claims to spike once more. For the time being, the job market is still in good shape, with new unemployment claims decreasing by 7.3% week-over-week on January 9. There are currently 5.7 million Americans unemployed in total, though, and it’s important to look at some key stats for the latest week to get the full picture:
- Every state had unemployment claims last week that were lower than in the previous week except for Oregon, Louisiana, New Mexico, California, Maryland, Rhode Island, Alaska, Idaho, Arkansas, Nevada and Kentucky.
- Every state had unemployment claims last week that were lower than in the same week pre-pandemic (2019) except for Nevada, New York, Indiana, California, Colorado, Utah, Rhode Island and Ohio.
- Surprisingly, 10 states – including Georgia, South Carolina and Colorado – had unemployment claims last week that were worse than the same week last year.
To identify where unemployment claims are decreasing the most even amid costly inflation, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on changes in unemployment claims for several key benchmark weeks. We also considered the number of claims per 100,000 people in the labor force.
Main Findings
States Where Unemployment Claims Are Decreasing the Most
| State | Decreased Most Since Last Week* | Claims Per 100,000 People in the Labor Force (Rank)** |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 1 | 12 |
| New Hampshire | 2 | 2 |
| New Jersey | 3 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 4 | 27 |
| Virginia | 5 | 1 |
| Delaware | 6 | 15 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 5 |
| Kansas | 8 | 8 |
| Alabama | 9 | 18 |
| Missouri | 10 | 23 |
| Michigan | 11 | 39 |
| Mississippi | 12 | 7 |
| South Carolina | 13 | 20 |
| Nebraska | 14 | 10 |
| South Dakota | 15 | 4 |
| North Dakota | 16 | 32 |
| Washington | 17 | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 18 | 42 |
| Florida | 19 | 3 |
| Hawaii | 20 | 36 |
| Wyoming | 21 | 30 |
| Maine | 22 | 26 |
| Montana | 23 | 37 |
| New York | 24 | 43 |
| Pennsylvania | 25 | 41 |
| Maryland | 26 | 9 |
| Texas | 27 | 16 |
| Georgia | 28 | 33 |
| Iowa | 29 | 28 |
| Minnesota | 30 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 31 | 6 |
| Utah | 32 | 21 |
| Indiana | 33 | 29 |
| West Virginia | 34 | 38 |
| Vermont | 35 | 25 |
| New Mexico | 36 | 13 |
| Arizona | 37 | 11 |
| Louisiana | 38 | 14 |
| Connecticut | 39 | 46 |
| Illinois | 40 | 34 |
| Massachusetts | 41 | 45 |
| Arkansas | 42 | 19 |
| Ohio | 43 | 44 |
| Oregon | 44 | 47 |
| Alaska | 45 | 49 |
| Colorado | 46 | 17 |
| Idaho | 47 | 40 |
| Nevada | 48 | 35 |
| California | 49 | 50 |
| Rhode Island | 50 | 51 |
| Kentucky | 51 | 48 |
*Rank 1 = Decreased Most
**Rank 1 = Fewest
Detailed Findings
| State | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs. Previous Week)* | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs Same Week Pre-Pandemic)** | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs Same Week of 2022)*** | Unemployment Claims per 100,000 People in the Labor Force |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | -43.52% | -20.81% | -56.79% | 94 |
| New Hampshire | -32.05% | -51.98% | -35.01% | 50 |
| New Jersey | -36.07% | -48.42% | -50.90% | 155 |
| District of Columbia | -17.88% | -70.06% | -72.07% | 159 |
| Virginia | -13.64% | -69.70% | -40.65% | 39 |
| Delaware | -36.59% | -49.34% | -22.45% | 109 |
| Oklahoma | -17.20% | -44.36% | -35.94% | 76 |
| Kansas | -7.12% | -43.33% | -60.28% | 81 |
| Alabama | -19.81% | -38.74% | -42.51% | 117 |
| Missouri | -32.18% | -30.82% | -23.25% | 137 |
| Michigan | -36.21% | -39.41% | -21.78% | 201 |
| Mississippi | -15.77% | -32.95% | -33.71% | 81 |
| South Carolina | -44.28% | -39.44% | 39.39% | 125 |
| Nebraska | -15.43% | -25.14% | -35.50% | 88 |
| South Dakota | -19.40% | -41.61% | 4.92% | 67 |
| North Dakota | -28.61% | -42.60% | -5.11% | 175 |
| Washington | -23.15% | -40.71% | -2.82% | 136 |
| Wisconsin | -35.29% | -13.68% | -32.64% | 225 |
| Florida | -8.82% | -32.86% | -20.98% | 63 |
| Hawaii | -21.19% | -24.30% | -41.43% | 193 |
| Wyoming | -22.83% | -36.53% | -13.88% | 169 |
| Maine | -19.63% | -35.74% | -13.49% | 158 |
| Montana | -24.53% | -38.59% | -1.97% | 193 |
| New York | -44.04% | 0.86% | -6.02% | 231 |
| Pennsylvania | -16.44% | -39.90% | -25.23% | 223 |
| Maryland | 8.26% | -48.76% | -26.43% | 86 |
| Texas | -16.13% | -16.24% | -9.97% | 117 |
| Georgia | -34.48% | -26.66% | 31.69% | 183 |
| Iowa | -11.45% | -36.47% | -7.12% | 163 |
| Minnesota | -17.88% | -10.15% | -20.82% | 170 |
| North Carolina | -5.05% | -19.65% | -7.16% | 77 |
| Utah | -8.92% | 24.03% | -61.28% | 127 |
| Indiana | -19.41% | 15.57% | -38.07% | 165 |
| West Virginia | -2.91% | -44.80% | -16.73% | 194 |
| Vermont | -4.14% | -21.07% | -25.07% | 157 |
| New Mexico | 4.73% | -42.73% | 1.49% | 101 |
| Arizona | -1.72% | -29.68% | 7.99% | 91 |
| Louisiana | 0.85% | -16.98% | -16.00% | 102 |
| Connecticut | -18.00% | -16.42% | -12.92% | 247 |
| Illinois | -9.06% | -3.20% | -19.74% | 190 |
| Massachusetts | -19.09% | -2.07% | -8.24% | 235 |
| Arkansas | 19.05% | -37.30% | -4.36% | 119 |
| Ohio | -5.38% | 30.81% | -13.70% | 233 |
| Oregon | 0.33% | -4.09% | 5.87% | 261 |
| Alaska | 13.30% | -37.23% | -8.78% | 317 |
| Colorado | -4.64% | 23.66% | 40.87% | 117 |
| Idaho | 17.86% | -17.69% | 29.10% | 216 |
| Nevada | 31.03% | 0.20% | -5.43% | 192 |
| California | 7.76% | 20.46% | 3.53% | 335 |
| Rhode Island | 12.28% | 25.25% | 4.21% | 366 |
| Kentucky | 89.14% | -51.93% | -53.68% | 267 |
*Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 2, 2023.
**Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 7, 2019.
***Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 10, 2022.
(Latest Week vs Previous Week)
- Biggest Decrease*
- 1. South Carolina
- 2. New York
- 3. Tennessee
- 4. Delaware
- 5. Michigan
- Smallest Decrease*
- 47. Alaska
- 48. Idaho
- 49. Arkansas
- 50. Nevada
- 51. Kentucky
(Latest Week vs Same Week Pre-Pandemic)
- Biggest Decrease**
- 1. District of Columbia
- 2. Virginia
- 3. New Hampshire
- 4. Kentucky
- 5. Delaware
- Smallest Decrease**
- 47. California
- 48. Colorado
- 49. Utah
- 50. Rhode Island
- 51. Ohio
(Latest Week vs Same Week of 2022)
- Biggest Decrease***
- 1. District of Columbia
- 2. Utah
- 3. Kansas
- 4. Tennessee
- 5. Kentucky
- Smallest Decrease***
- 47. Arizona
- 48. Idaho
- 49. Georgia
- 50. South Carolina
- 51. Colorado
- Least Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force
- 1. Virginia
- 2. New Hampshire
- 3. Florida
- 4. South Dakota
- 5. Oklahoma
- Most Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force
- 47. Oregon
- 48. Kentucky
- 49. Alaska
- 50. California
- 51. Rhode Island
*Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 2, 2023.
**Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 7, 2019.
***Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 10, 2022.
Blue States vs. Red States
Ask the Experts
To help guide Americans who have lost their jobs or are worried about losing them during a potential recession, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts to provide some additional insight. Click on the experts below to view their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- What can people do to prepare for a potential recession?
- Do you think the hiring dynamic is currently tilted in the employees’ favor?
- With inflation at a 40-year high, what is your advice for people looking to protect their finances?
- Given the current circumstances, what trends do you expect to see in terms of unemployment in the foreseeable future?
- What are your predictions for the job market as we move forward during 2023 (job gains, hiring confidence, quit rates etc.)?
Ask the Experts
Ph.D. – Laurence A. Bloom Professor of Economics, Department of Economics – Boston University
Read More
Ph.D. – Assistant Professor & Graduate Program Director, Department of Sociology – University of Colorado Denver
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Ph.D. – Associate Professor, Department of Economics – Central Connecticut State University
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Ph.D. – Professor of Economics – Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Read More
Professor of Economics – Iowa State University
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Ph.D. – Professor of Economics – Wright State University
Read More
Methodology
In order to identify where unemployment claims are decreasing the most, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on changes in unemployment insurance initial claims for several key weeks. We also considered the number of claims per 100,000 people in the labor force. The metrics are listed below with their corresponding weights. We then used those metrics to rank-order the states.
- Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Previous Week: Triple Weight (~50.00 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 2, 2023. - Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Same Week Pre-Pandemic: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 7, 2019. - Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Same Week of 2022: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of January 9, 2023 compared to the week of January 10, 2022. - Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims per 100,000 People in the Labor Force: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor.