The U.S. has reduced unemployment from record highs during the COVID-19 pandemic to near record lows. Now, however, high inflation and the looming threat of a recession could cause unemployment claims to spike once more. For the time being, the job market is still in good shape, with new unemployment claims decreasing by 2.6% week-over-week on August 29. There are currently 6 million Americans unemployed in total, though, and it’s important to look at some key stats for the latest week to get the full picture:
- 23 states and the District of Columbia had unemployment claims last week that were lower than in the previous week: Vermont, New Hampshire, Michigan, Connecticut, Mississippi, New York, South Carolina, Alabama, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Oregon, Montana, Missouri, Maine, North Carolina, Florida, New Jersey, Wyoming, and Tennessee.
- Surprisingly, five states - South Carolina, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Connecticut, and Arizona - had unemployment claims last week that were worse than the same week last year.
- Every state had unemployment claims last week that were lower than in the same week pre-pandemic (2019) except for Oklahoma, Indiana, Connecticut, Colorado, Ohio, Utah, Virginia, Kentucky, Hawaii, Alaska, Minnesota, Texas, Rhode Island, California, Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, and Idaho.
To identify where unemployment claims are decreasing the most even amid costly inflation, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on changes in unemployment claims for several key benchmark weeks. We also considered the number of claims per 100,000 people in the labor force.
Main Findings
States Where Unemployment Claims Are Decreasing the Most
| State | Decreased Most Since Last Week* | Claims Per 100,000 People in the Labor Force (Rank)** |
|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 1 | 2 |
| Maryland | 2 | 8 |
| Delaware | 3 | 4 |
| Louisiana | 4 | 22 |
| Mississippi | 5 | 12 |
| Vermont | 6 | 11 |
| North Dakota | 7 | 3 |
| Nebraska | 8 | 5 |
| New Mexico | 9 | 14 |
| Michigan | 10 | 29 |
| District of Columbia | 11 | 24 |
| Tennessee | 12 | 9 |
| West Virginia | 13 | 25 |
| Maine | 14 | 7 |
| Montana | 15 | 20 |
| Missouri | 16 | 18 |
| Illinois | 17 | 35 |
| Alabama | 18 | 31 |
| Iowa | 19 | 17 |
| South Dakota | 20 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 21 | 10 |
| Kansas | 22 | 28 |
| Florida | 23 | 6 |
| Wyoming | 24 | 19 |
| Rhode Island | 25 | 42 |
| Arkansas | 26 | 30 |
| Wisconsin | 27 | 36 |
| Washington | 28 | 32 |
| Minnesota | 29 | 27 |
| Georgia | 30 | 33 |
| Arizona | 31 | 26 |
| Idaho | 31 | 21 |
| Pennsylvania | 33 | 40 |
| Oregon | 34 | 44 |
| Virginia | 35 | 13 |
| Texas | 36 | 34 |
| New Jersey | 37 | 43 |
| Colorado | 38 | 15 |
| Utah | 39 | 16 |
| Ohio | 40 | 39 |
| South Carolina | 41 | 23 |
| New York | 42 | 46 |
| Nevada | 43 | 45 |
| California | 44 | 50 |
| Hawaii | 45 | 49 |
| Connecticut | 46 | 48 |
| Indiana | 47 | 41 |
| Alaska | 48 | 51 |
| Kentucky | 49 | 38 |
| Oklahoma | 50 | 47 |
| Massachusetts | 51 | 37 |
*Rank 1 = Decreased Most
**Rank 1 = Fewest
Detailed Findings
| State | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs. Previous Week)* | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs Same Week Pre-Pandemic)** | Change in Unemployment Claims (Latest Week vs Same Week of 2021)*** | Unemployment Claims per 100,000 People in the Labor Force |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | -33.87% | -44.65% | -51.75% | 27 |
| Maryland | -10.17% | -33.55% | -69.18% | 52 |
| Delaware | -10.36% | -49.44% | -47.67% | 45 |
| Louisiana | -12.56% | -16.37% | -83.82% | 74 |
| Mississippi | -20.14% | -25.38% | -54.33% | 61 |
| Vermont | -36.42% | -2.93% | -49.49% | 58 |
| North Dakota | 6.72% | -40.17% | -52.49% | 35 |
| Nebraska | 4.91% | -44.58% | -51.05% | 46 |
| New Mexico | 0.16% | -6.29% | -84.99% | 65 |
| Michigan | -32.04% | 1.72% | -61.91% | 91 |
| District of Columbia | -1.66% | -24.30% | -68.54% | 76 |
| Tennessee | -1.75% | -11.35% | -63.09% | 58 |
| West Virginia | -15.32% | -22.79% | -48.02% | 78 |
| Maine | -3.94% | -12.11% | -49.85% | 49 |
| Montana | -6.07% | -16.42% | -48.33% | 70 |
| Missouri | -5.51% | -14.93% | -47.63% | 69 |
| Illinois | 4.80% | -39.64% | -56.96% | 103 |
| Alabama | -15.76% | 2.90% | -56.88% | 95 |
| Iowa | 5.99% | -33.97% | -36.28% | 68 |
| South Dakota | 34.72% | -20.49% | -50.26% | 20 |
| North Carolina | -3.39% | -1.48% | -40.67% | 58 |
| Kansas | 5.76% | -44.09% | -32.57% | 80 |
| Florida | -2.24% | -7.08% | -27.32% | 49 |
| Wyoming | -1.93% | -12.50% | -35.35% | 70 |
| Rhode Island | -9.53% | 9.24% | -69.17% | 116 |
| Arkansas | -12.97% | -13.20% | -24.97% | 92 |
| Wisconsin | 12.72% | -13.18% | -52.81% | 105 |
| Washington | 5.84% | -20.83% | -27.37% | 98 |
| Minnesota | 7.18% | 10.51% | -36.90% | 79 |
| Georgia | 1.48% | 7.46% | -35.84% | 98 |
| Arizona | 0.07% | -21.67% | 2.83% | 79 |
| Idaho | 6.16% | 1.00% | -18.45% | 73 |
| Pennsylvania | 15.53% | -34.08% | -26.42% | 113 |
| Oregon | -6.55% | -3.42% | -39.71% | 139 |
| Virginia | 28.03% | 27.33% | -54.31% | 64 |
| Texas | 2.35% | 9.80% | -29.52% | 98 |
| New Jersey | -2.18% | -12.94% | -17.80% | 132 |
| Colorado | 2.97% | 40.20% | -22.08% | 65 |
| Utah | 6.80% | 37.76% | -18.75% | 65 |
| Ohio | 9.36% | 39.75% | -51.49% | 113 |
| South Carolina | -16.39% | -3.96% | 42.23% | 75 |
| New York | -19.29% | -2.04% | -5.61% | 154 |
| Nevada | 15.00% | -6.60% | -19.05% | 148 |
| California | 2.21% | 8.04% | -35.49% | 193 |
| Hawaii | 7.04% | 20.79% | -46.53% | 189 |
| Connecticut | -21.84% | 54.58% | 11.66% | 177 |
| Indiana | 20.61% | 102.53% | -31.94% | 116 |
| Alaska | 22.34% | 16.42% | -28.79% | 217 |
| Kentucky | 55.19% | 24.27% | 14.34% | 111 |
| Oklahoma | 98.31% | 114.75% | 14.10% | 162 |
| Massachusetts | 278.51% | -0.22% | -32.63% | 106 |
*Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 22, 2022.
**Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 26, 2019.
***Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 28, 2021.
(Latest Week vs Previous Week)
- Biggest Decrease*
- 1. Vermont
- 2. New Hampshire
- 3. Michigan
- 4. Connecticut
- 5. Mississippi
- Smallest Decrease*
- 47. Virginia
- 48. South Dakota
- 49. Kentucky
- 50. Oklahoma
- 51. Massachusetts
(Latest Week vs Same Week of 2019)
- Biggest Decrease**
- 1. Delaware
- 2. New Hampshire
- 3. Nebraska
- 4. Kansas
- 5. North Dakota
- Smallest Decrease**
- 47. Ohio
- 48. Colorado
- 49. Connecticut
- 50. Indiana
- 51. Oklahoma
(Latest Week vs Same Week of 2021)
- Biggest Decrease***
- 1. New Mexico
- 2. Louisiana
- 3. Maryland
- 4. Rhode Island
- 5. District of Columbia
- Smallest Decrease***
- 47. Arizona
- 48. Connecticut
- 49. Oklahoma
- 50. Kentucky
- 51. South Carolina
- Least Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force
- 1. South Dakota
- 2. New Hampshire
- 3. North Dakota
- 4. Delaware
- 5. Nebraska
- Most Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force
- 47. Oklahoma
- 48. Connecticut
- 49. Hawaii
- 50. California
- 51. Alaska
*Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 22, 2022.
**Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 26, 2019.
***Refers to the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 28, 2021.
Blue States vs. Red States
Ask the Experts
To help guide Americans who have lost their jobs or are worried about losing them during a potential recession, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts to provide some additional insight. Click on the experts below to view their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- What can people do to prepare for a potential recession?
- Do you think the hiring dynamic is currently tilted in the employees’ favor?
- With inflation at a 40-year high, what is your advice for people looking to protect their finances?
- Given the current circumstances, what trends do you expect to see in terms of unemployment in the foreseeable future?
- What are your predictions for the job market as we move forward in 2022 (job gains, hiring confidence, quit rates etc.)?
Ask the Experts
Professor of Law Emeritus and Director of the Graduate Program in Financial Services Law Emeritus – Illinois Tech Chicago-Kent College of Law
Read More
Distinguished Teaching Professor – University of Louisville Brandeis School of Law
Read More
President Emerita and University Professor, Department of Sociology, College of Arts and Sciences – University of Virginia
Read More
Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Management – Virginia Tech
Read More
Concurrent Professor of Law and Philosophy – Boston College Law School
Read More
Ph.D., MBA, Chair, University Faculty Council (2021-2023 AY), Professor of Behavioral Management, College of Business and Global Affairs, University of Tennessee at Martin
Read More
Methodology
In order to identify where unemployment claims are decreasing the most, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on changes in unemployment insurance initial claims for several key weeks. We also considered the number of claims per 100,000 people in the labor force. The metrics are listed below with their corresponding weights. We then used those metrics to rank-order the states.
- Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Previous Week: Triple Weight (~50.00 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 22, 2022. - Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Same Week Pre-Pandemic: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 26, 2019. - Change in Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Latest Week vs. Same Week of 2021: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the number of unemployment insurance initial claims in the week of August 29, 2022 compared to the week of August 28, 2021. - Number of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims per 100,000 People in Labor Force: Full Weight (~16.67 Points)
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor.