States with the Best & Worst Representation on Election Day

Election history reveals a perpetually glaring problem in America: low voter turnout among certain demographic groups, including young, minority and low-income citizens. Although demographic composition does not necessarily reflect Americans’ political conscience, the data historically have helped to predict voting behavior among different segments of society and consequently have impacted election outcomes. A recent Pew Research report, for instance, found that very different demographic groups support Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

In previous analyses of the U.S. electorate, WalletHub determined which states’ and metro areas’ populations most closely mirror the rest of the nation. We also compared the likeness of the U.S. with Iowa and New Hampshire. On the heels of those reports and ahead of this November’s presidential election, WalletHub’s analysts determined which of the 50 states’ voters are most demographically representative of their electorates. More specifically, we compared each state’s voter distribution to its electorate distribution by race, age and gender to determine the state’s Voter Representation Index. We then applied the same approach to determine the National Voter Representation Index, which compares U.S. voters to the national electorate based on four additional demographic categories: employment status, family income, educational attainment and marital status.

State Representation

*Rank 1 = Voters demographically represent most the state’s electorate.

National Representation

Ask the Experts

As previous election analyses have pointed out, low voter turnout persists among certain social groups, and different theories have attempted to understand this issue. For additional insight, we turned to a panel of experts in fields such as political science, American studies and racial discrimination. Click on the panelists’ profiles below to read their bios and thoughts on the following key questions:

1. Why are minority voters less likely to show up at the polls?
2. Are there any measures that authorities can take to encourage more people — especially from underrepresented communities — to vote?
3. How can redistricting be reformed in a way that ensures fair representation for the electorate?
4. To what extent do voter-ID laws and voting logistics (early voting, absentee ballot, etc.) affect voter turnout, particularly for minority populations?
5. Recent data suggests the strong possibility of a record turnout this November. At the same time, nearly half of voters expect to have difficulties voting. What can be done to ensure a fair voting process while taking all precautions against the COVID-19 outbreak?

Ask the Experts

Robert G. Boatright
Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science – Clark University
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Alison Dagnes
Professor, Political Science Department – Shippensburg University
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Daniel P. Aldrich
Professor and Director of the Security and Resilience Studies Program, Northeastern University
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Anthony Fowler
Associate Professor, Harris School of Public Policy – University of Chicago
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Dick W. Simpson
Political Science Professor and former Chicago Alderman Dick Simpson – University of Illinois at Chicago
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Joseph Losco
Professor Emeritus, Bowen Center for Public Affairs, Department of Political Science – Ball State University; Adjunct Professor of Political Science – Loyola University Chicago
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More Experts

Methodology

To determine which states’ voters most demographically represent their electorates, WalletHub’s analysts compared the distribution of the voting population in each of the 50 states to the distribution of the state’s total population by race, age and gender.

Each demographic category was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the lowest absolute difference between the state voter distribution and the state population distribution.

We then calculated overall scores for each state using the weighted average across all metrics, which we then used to determine WalletHub’s State Voter Representation Index. The resulting index values were used to rank the states.

Finally, we applied the same approach to determine WalletHub’s National Voter Representation Index. For this particular part of the analysis, however, we compared the national voter distribution to the U.S. electorate distribution by the same demographic traits we used for the states, plus four additional categories: employment status, family income, educational attainment and marital status.

We considered only data from the 2016 presidential election for both the state and national analyses.

WalletHub’s State Voter Representation Index

Race - Total Points: 33.3

• White: Full Weight
• African-American: Full Weight
• Asian: Full Weight
• Hispanic: Full Weight
• Other: Full Weight

Age - Total Points: 33.3

• Aged 18 to 44: Full Weight
• Aged 45 to 64: Full Weight
• Aged 65 & Older: Full Weight

Gender - Total Points: 33.3

• Male: Full Weight
• Female: Full Weight

WalletHub’s National Voter Representation Index

Race - Total Points: 14.3

• White: Full Weight
• African-American: Full Weight
• Asian: Full Weight
• Hispanic: Full Weight
• Other: Full Weight

Age - Total Points: 14.3

• Age 18 to 24: Full Weight
• Age 25 to 34: Full Weight
• Age 35 to 44: Full Weight
• Age 45 to 64: Full Weight
• Age 65 & Older: Full Weight

Gender - Total Points: 14.3

• Male: Full Weight
• Female: Full Weight

Employment Status - Total Points: 14.3

• Government Worker: Full Weight
• Private Industry: Full Weight
• Self-Employed: Full Weight
• Unemployed: Full Weight

Family Income - Total Points: 14.3

• ≤$19,999: Full Weight
• $20,000 to $49,999: Full Weight
• $50,000 to $74,999: Full Weight
• $75,000 to $99,999: Full Weight
• $100,000 to $149,999: Full Weight
• $150,000+: Full Weight

Educational Attainment - Total Points: 14.3

• Some High School: Full Weight
• High School Graduate: Full Weight
• Some College or Associate’s Degree: Full Weight
• Bachelor's Degree or Higher: Full Weight

Marital Status - Total Points: 14.3

• Married: Full Weight
• Widowed: Full Weight
• Divorced: Full Weight
• Separated: Full Weight
• Never Married: Full Weight

 
Sources: Data used to create this report were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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