Donald Trump surprised pollsters when he won the 2016 presidential election over his rival Hillary Clinton, but will he be able to replicate that success in 2020 against Democratic challenger Joe Biden? More importantly – what would four more years of a Trump presidency look like for taxes, the stock market, education, health care, the COVID-19 response and more? WalletHub explored all those topics and more to predict how a second Trump term might impact you, especially when it comes to your finances.
The Trump campaign's second term agenda has provided limited details regarding its economic priorities. Therefore, to assess President Trump’s economic plan we relied on the president’s statements and the fiscal proposals contained in his 2021 budget. Below, you can see our full data, along with additional commentary on each topic from a panel of experts.
| Area Of Interest | Projected Impact |
|---|---|
| Personal Taxes | Extend individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) until 2035. |
| Corporate Taxes | Extend business tax breaks in the TCJA. |
| Stock Market | Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 6.18% annual rate with a divided Congress. |
| Unemployment | Create 10 million new jobs in 10 months, create 1 million new small businesses. |
| Education | Create single income-driven student loan repayment plan, cap monthly payments at 12.5%. |
| Social Security | Reduce welfare spending particularly on SNAP and TANF. |
| Health Care | Spending cuts over the next decade to Medicaid (-$900 billion) and Medicare (-$450 billion). |
| Minimum Wage | No change, leaves the decision up to the states. |
| COVID-19 Response | Delegated primarily responsibility for COVID-19 response to states, with federal government as back-up. |
Personal Taxes
| Annual Income | Trump’s Proposed Tax Rate | Current Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Over $518,400 | 37% | 37% |
| $207,351-$518,400 | 35% | 35% |
| $163,301-$207,350 | 32% | 32% |
| $85,526-$163,300 | 24% | 24% |
| $40,126-$85,525 | 22% | 22% |
| $9,876 to $40,125 | 12% | 12% |
| $0 to $9,875 | 10% | 10% |
- Extend individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) until 2035.
- Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,706B
- Projected Tax Revenue for 2021 (Trump): $3,863B
Other Notable Tax Policy Changes
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Estate Tax & Housing | Index capital gains to inflation. Reduce the tax rates on long-term capital gains. |
| Caregiver Benefits | Expansion of caregiver benefits for family members caring for ill veterans. Expand TCJA larger credit of up to $2,000 for each under-age-13 qualifying child for 2018-2025. |
| Itemized Deductions | Establish Education Freedom Scholarships, to create an annual federal tax credit for donations to state-based scholarship programs. Give Medicare beneficiaries with high deductible health plans the option to make tax deductible contributions to HSAs or MSAs. Tax credit for domestic travel expenses. |
| Retirement Accounts & Senior Citizens | Increase in federal employee contributions to the Federal Employee Retirement System of 1% each year. Base retirement benefits on the average of an employee’s highest five years of salary (instead of highest three years). Eliminate the FERS Special Retirement Supplement payments for employees who retire before age 62. |
| Environment | Repeal specific energy-related tax credits. |
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
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Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
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Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
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Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
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Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
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Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
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Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
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Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
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Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
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Anthony R. Brunello
Professor of Political Science – Eckerd College
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Professor of Political Science – Eckerd College
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More Experts
Corporate Taxes
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Corporate Tax Rate | Cut taxes to keep jobs in America. Extend business tax breaks in the TCJA. |
| Taxation of Foreign Earnings | Provide “Made in America” tax credit. Remove tax deductions for shipping jobs overseas. No federal contracts for companies who outsource to China. 100% expensing deductions for essential industries like pharmaceuticals and robotics that bring manufacturing back to the U.S. |
| Environment | No specifics mentioned. |
| Other Business Provisions | Restore the deductibility of meals and entertainment costs. Expand Opportunity Zones to boost investment in economically distressed census tracts. |
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
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Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
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Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
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Political Science – Eckerd College
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More Experts
Stock Market
Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors
- Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 6.18% annual rate with a Republican president and a divided Congress.
- The S&P 500 has grown at a 13.87% annual rate with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
More Experts
Unemployment
| Issue | Trump's Stance |
|---|---|
| "Made in America" | Create 10 million new jobs in 10 months. Create 1 million new small businesses. Bring back 1 million manufacturing jobs from China. |
| Government Spending | Boost job creation through infrastructure investments. |
| Projected Economic Impact (Republican Sweep) | +11.2 million jobs. 4.8% unemployment rate in 2024. |
Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors
- Historically, the unemployment rate has increased by an average of 0.17 percentage points with a Republican president and divided Congress.
- The unemployment rate has increased by an average of 0.04 percentage points with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Professor of Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Professor of Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
More Experts
Education
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Education Spending | The Trump administration's 2021 budget proposal requests a 7.8% decrease for the U.S. Department of Education from 2020. |
| Education Loans | Create single income-driven student loan repayment plan, cap monthly payments at 12.5%. Eliminate Public Service Loan Forgiveness. Eliminate standard repayment cap. Eliminate subsidized student loans. |
| Education Equality | Implement $19.4 billion Elementary and Secondary Education for the Disadvantaged (ESED) Block Grant. |
| Charter Schools | Provide school choice to every child in America. |
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
John S. Baker
Professor Emeritus of Law – Louisiana State University
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Professor Emeritus of Law – Louisiana State University
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More Experts
Social Security
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Social Spending | Reduce welfare spending, particularly on SNAP and TANF. Eliminate the Social Services Block Grant. |
| Payroll Tax | Suspend employee-side 6.2% Social Security payroll tax from September 1 until the end of the year. |
| Cost-Of-Living Adjustments | The Trump Administration has proposed an elimination of the cost-of-living adjustment for current and future retirees. 0.5% cut to the COLA for Civil Service Retirement System participants. |
| Benefits | Overhaul federal disability programs and improve Social Security payment integrity. Modify government contribution rates to federal health benefit programs and reduce retirement benefits for federal employees. Provide paid parental leave. |
| Social Safety Net Effect (2021-2024) | -$138.7 billion. |
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
More Experts
Health Care
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Health Care Spending | Spending cuts over the next decade to Medicaid (-$900 billion) and Medicare (-$450 billion). Address opioids and mental health. |
| Cost Reduction | Enact comprehensive drug pricing reform. Lower healthcare insurance premiums. End surprise medical billing. |
| ACA | Supports ACA repeal and lawsuit to overturn the ACA. |
| Coverage Expansion | Cover all pre-existing conditions. |
| Medicare | Reduce Medicare payments for uncompensated care, post-acute care, hospice care, and hospital-owned physician offices, among others. |
| Medicaid | Implement Medicaid community engagement requirement. Enable CMS to recoup improper payments and continue Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital allotment reductions. |
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
More Experts
Minimum Wage
| Initiative | Current Minimum Wage | Trump's Proposed Minimum Wage | Info |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum Wage | $7.25 | No change, leaves the decision up to the states. | In 2019, Trump threatened to veto the House bill to gradually raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour. |
- Currently, 29 states and D.C. have minimum wages above the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
- California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.
- Five states have not adopted a state minimum wage: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Ask the Experts
Bill Kubik
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – Hanover College
Read More
Burdett A. Loomis
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Professor Emeritus Social and Behavioral Sciences - Political Science – University of Kansas
Read More
Stanley Renshon
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Ph.D. – Professor of Political Science – The Graduate Center, City University of New York and Professor, Department of Political Science – Lehman College, City University of New York
Read More
Paul Brace
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Clarence Carter Chair in Legal Studies and Professor, Department of Political Science; Master, Hanszen College – Rice University
Read More
Peri Arnold
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science – University of Notre Dame
Read More
Anthony R. Brunello
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
Political Science – Eckerd College
Read More
More Experts
COVID-19 Response
| Issue | Trump’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Responsibility | Delegated primarily responsibility for COVID-19 response to states, with federal government as back-up. |
| Support | Signed emergency relief legislation which eliminated out-of-pocket costs for COVID-19 testing, prevention, eventual vaccine. Expanded unemployment insurance. Provided paid sick leave and expanded family and medical leave during the emergency. |
| Health Insurance Coverage During Pandemic | Extended COBRA election period during emergency, without subsidies. Declined to reopen ACA enrollment for uninsured. Increased Medicaid FMAP by 6.2%. |
| School Reopening | Supports reopening schools in-person, and ties federal funding relief to physical reopening. |
| WHO Engagement | Reduced U.S. engagement in global response, ended U.S. funding for WHO and announced withdrawal from WHO membership. |
Sources: This report is based on WalletHub projections as well as data from Tax Foundation, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Moody’s Analytics, Kaiser Family Foundation, Donald J. Trump for President, The Kiplinger Washington Editors, National Conference of State Legislatures and news reports.
