States With the Most & Least Powerful Voters

Not all votes are created equal. Some votes carry more weight than others simply because of the somewhat complicated way our voting system is organized. Members of Congress are elected by direct popular vote, but the president is chosen by the Electoral College, a group selected by voters, when they cast a ballot for commander-in-chief.

In a presidential election, voter power varies widely by state. While all votes are theoretically counted equally — one person, one vote — the choices of swing-state citizens are more influential. It’s safe to assume that Alabama will vote Republican and California will vote Democratic in the upcoming election. In contrast, the electoral results of swing states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona are up in the air, giving their voters more impact.

So which states will decide the outcome of the upcoming election? Before American voters head to the polls on Nov. 5, WalletHub compared the relative influence of voters in both the presidential and Senate races. In order to make such a comparison, we calculated a Voter Power Score for each state and for each type of election. Continue reading below for our findings, additional election commentary and a full description of our methodology.

“No matter where you live, you should vote in the upcoming election, as it’s your civic duty and gives you a chance to have a say in our political system. At the same time, it’s evident that not all votes hold the same weight. The top five states where residents’ votes will have the biggest impact in the 2024 election are all fiercely-contested battleground states: Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. If you live in one of these states, you could quite literally have the fate of the election in your hands.”

Chip Lupo, WalletHub Analyst

Presidential Rankings

Presidential Election - States with the Most & Least Powerful Voters

Notes: *No. 1 = Most Powerful
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allocate votes proportionally (based on the congressional district allocation approach). While it is rare for Maine or Nebraska to have a split vote, each has done so twice: Nebraska in 2008, Maine in 2016, and both Maine and Nebraska in 2020.

Senate Rankings

Senate Elections - States with the Most & Least Powerful Voters

Note: *No.1 = Most Powerful

Ask the Experts

As the 2024 election approaches, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on the issues with the current U.S. voting structures and procedures. Click on the experts’ profiles to read their bios and responses to the following key questions:

1. Do you think it’s fair that each state is represented by only two senators, regardless of population? Is the House of Representatives enough to balance this out?
2. What are the consequences of having so many gerrymandered, uncompetitive House districts? How does this impact governance?
3. Should we reform how votes are apportioned in Congress (both the House and the Senate)? If so, how?
4. Should there be a nonpartisan Federal Commission that would organize and supervise the voting process or should voting procedures be left to the states?

Ask the Experts

David Skidmore
Professor of Political Science – Drake University
Read More

Ciara Torres-Spelliscy
Professor of Law and Brennan Center Fellow – Stetson University College of Law
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Dr. Sharon D. Wright Austin
Professor of Political Science – The University of Florida
Read More

Steven Greene
Department of Political Science – North Carolina State University
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Dr. Alison Dagnes
Professor & Chair, Political Science Department – Shippensburg University
Read More

Edward L. Gibson
Kenneth F. Burgess Professor of Political Science – Northwestern University
Read More

More Experts

Methodology

In order to determine the states with the most and least influential voters, WalletHub calculated the Voter Power Scores for both presidential and Senate elections in each state.

For presidential elections, we used the "win probabilities” calculated by YouGov and graded each state election on a 100-point scale, with 100 points being awarded to the states with literally a 50 percent chance of swinging either Red or Blue (50-50) and 0 points to the states with zero chance of one party determining the election (100-0).

We then multiplied the win probability score by the number of electors of a given state and divided the product by the state’s population aged 18 and older. Finally, we multiplied the result by 1,000,000 in order to calculate the Presidential Election Voter Power Score for that state.

We applied the same approach to calculate the Senate Election Voter Power Score for each state, using “win probabilities” calculated by YouGov. In this case, however, we multiplied the win probability score by the number of Senate seats up for election in 2024 for a given state instead of its number of electors.

Our calculations are expressed in the following formulas:

Presidential Election Voter Power Score: [(Win Probability Score x Number of Electors) / Total Population Aged 18 & Older] x 1,000,000

Senate Election Voter Power Score: [(Win Probability Score x Number of Senators) / Total Population Aged 18 & Older] x 1,000,000

In our calculations, we counted only the population aged 18 or older to represent the electorate. However, we were not able to account for the limited number of state laws that allow the population aged 17 to vote and/or bar prisoners or felons from doing so.

 
Sources: Data used to create these rankings is courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau, fivethirtyeight.com, YouGov and archives.gov.

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