Electorate Representation Index

As we move through the primary season, a commonly-asked question is why states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which are a lot more homogenous than the country as a whole, get the first spots in the election cycle and thus have the biggest impact on narrowing down the field of candidates.

In this report, WalletHub sought to identify which of the 50 states are most representative of the U.S. population and thus truly worthy of the top primary-election spot. It found that the top state, Illinois, has a 94% similarity to U.S. demographics as a whole, compared to just 89% and 83% for Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively – indicating that the country may benefit from a shake-up in the order in which states vote.

“Illinois, Florida and Ohio reflect the electorate far better than Iowa and New Hampshire, which only rank 19th and 36th out of the 50 states in terms of how well their demographics match up with the U.S. population overall. Instead of basing the order on tradition or political favor, we should consider putting the most representative states first during the presidential primaries.”

Cassandra Happe, WalletHub Analyst

Main Findings

Gender Characteristics

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Kentucky
• 2. Indiana
• 3. Michigan
• 4. Virginia
• 5. Illinois

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. South Dakota
• 47. Colorado
• 48. Wyoming
• 49. North Dakota
• 50. Alaska

Age Characteristics

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Illinois
• 2. Tennessee
• 3. North Carolina
• 4. Virginia
• 5. Kentucky

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. Texas
• 47. New Hampshire
• 48. Vermont
• 49. Maine
• 50. Utah

Racial Characteristics

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Illinois
• 2. Connecticut
• 3. New York
• 4. New Jersey
• 5. Virginia

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. West Virginia
• 47. Vermont
• 48. Maine
• 49. New Mexico
• 50. Hawaii

% of Population with Health-Insurance Coverage

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• T-1. Arkansas
• T-1. Utah
• 3. Kansas
• 4. Montana
• 5. Louisiana

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. Vermont
• 47. Hawaii
• 48. Oklahoma
• 49. Massachusetts
• 50. Texas

Income

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Texas
• 2. Pennsylvania
• 3. Illinois
• 4. Oregon
• 5. Georgia

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. New Jersey
• 47. Maryland
• 48. Arkansas
• 49. West Virginia
• 50. Mississippi

Wealth Gap

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Georgia
• 2. Kentucky
• 3. New Mexico
• 4. Alabama
• 5. Illinois

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. Wisconsin
• 47. Alaska
• 48. Idaho
• 49. New York
• 50. Utah

Educational Attainment

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Georgia
• 2. North Carolina
• 3. Florida
• 4. Illinois
• 5. Rhode Island

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. Arkansas
• 47. Wyoming
• 48. Mississippi
• 49. Massachusetts
• 50. West Virginia

Religious Composition of Adults

Closest to U.S. Reference Value

• 1. Florida
• 2. Ohio
• 3. Wisconsin
• 4. Kansas
• 5. Indiana

Furthest from U.S. Reference Value

• 46. Arkansas
• 47. Oklahoma
• 48. Mississippi
• 49. Alabama
• 50. Utah

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In-Depth Look at the States that Most Resemble the U.S.

Illinois

Illinois is the state where voters most resemble the U.S. electorate as a whole, with a 94% similarity when all demographics are averaged. It’s most similar in terms of gender, age, the share of residents born in the U.S., and the unemployment rate, with more than 99% similarity for each of those metrics.

There are a few demographics that have slightly less similarity, though. For example, the Prairie State only has an 87% similarity to the country as a whole when it comes to religion. The share of evangelical Protestants and people unaffiliated with a religion are each around 5% lower in Illinois than in the U.S. overall, while the share of Catholics is around 5% higher.

When it comes to political ideology, Illinois residents have a roughly 87% similarity to the rest of the U.S. When describing their political views, 6.6% fewer Illinois residents say their views are conservative while 4.8% more say their views are liberal.

Quite a few presidents come from Illinois, too – it’s the birthplace of Ronald Reagan and the state where Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant and Barack Obama lived before their presidencies.

Florida

Florida voters have the second-closest resemblance to the whole country’s electorate, at around 93.8%, and it’s also one of the most important swing states for deciding elections. Florida is most similar to the U.S. in terms of gender, the poverty rate and the unemployment rate, with greater than 99% similarity for each metric. One interesting tidbit is that even though Florida is known as a haven for seniors, it still has 90% similarity to the U.S. overall when it comes to the age of its residents.

One area where Florida is least similar to the U.S. as a whole is its racial and ethnic composition, at only around a 79% similarity. The share of white residents in Florida is around 7% lower than in the U.S. at large, while the share of hispanic residents is nearly 8% larger. The percentage of Florida residents born in foreign countries is more than 7% higher than the share across the entire U.S., too.

Ohio

Ohio’s voter demographics are the third-closest to those of U.S. voters as a whole, with around 92.8% similarity. Ohio is another important swing state, and it’s famously known as the “Mother of Presidents,” with eight presidents either born there or living there when elected. Some of the metrics where Ohio has the highest similarity to the country as a whole, at more than 99%, are gender, the poverty rate, and the length of the average work week.

One of the few areas where Ohio voters are dissimilar to Americans as a whole is racial and ethnic composition. Around 77% of Ohio residents are white, compared to 59% of the U.S. The state has a nearly 9% smaller share of people born in a foreign country, too.

Ohio also differs a bit when it comes to religion, with around 3% more Evangelical Protestants and 3% fewer Catholics than the country as a whole. However, Ohioans do have an incredible 100% similarity to Americans at large when it comes to how important religion is in people’s lives.

U.S. Snapshot

Sociodemographics

• Gender
  1. % of Male Population: 49.59%
  2. % of Female Population: 50.41%
• Age
  1. % of Population Aged 19 & Younger: 24.80%
  2. % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24: 6.70%
  3. % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34: 13.70%
  4. % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44: 12.90%
  5. % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54: 12.40%
  6. % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64: 12.90%
  7. % of Population Aged 65 & Older: 16.50%
• Race
  1. % of White Population: 58.90%
  2. % of Black or African American Population: 12.10%
  3. % of American Indian or Alaskan Population: 0.60%
  4. % of Asian Population: 5.70%
  5. % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population: 0.20%
  6. % of Other Population: 3.90%
  7. % of Hispanic Population: 18.70%
• Family Relationship
  1. % of Population Who Are Householders: 38.90%
  2. % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households): 18.50%
  3. % of Population Who Are Children (in Households): 29.40%
  4. % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households): 7.10%
  5. % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households): 3.40%
• Health Insurance Coverage
  1. % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage: 91.30%
  2. % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage: 8.70%
• Place of Birth
  1. % of Foreign-Born Population: 13.70%
  2. % of Native Population: 86.30%

Economy

• % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels
  1. Less than $25,000: 15.70%
  2. $25,000 – 34,999: 7.40%
  3. $35,000 – 49,999: 10.70%
  4. $50,000 – $74,999: 16.10%
  5. $75,000 – $99,999: 12.80%
  6. $100,000 – $149,999: 17.10%
  7. $150,000 or More: 20.20%
• Poverty Rate
  1. % of Families in Poverty: 8.80%
  2. % of Families with Income above Poverty Line: 91.20%
• Wealth Gap: 16.82
• Food Stamp Entitlement of Households
  1. % of Households Receiving Food Stamps: 11.52%
  2. % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps: 88.48%
• Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees: 44.89
• Unemployment Rate: 3.60%
• Length of Average Workweek: 38.70 hours
• Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 & Older by Industry
  1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining: 1.60%
  2. Construction: 6.90%
  3. Manufacturing: 10.00%
  4. Wholesale Trade: 2.40%
  5. Retail Trade: 11.00%
  6. Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities: 5.80%
  7. Information: 1.90%
  8. Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing: 6.70%
  9. Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services: 12.10%
  10. Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance: 23.30%
  11. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services: 9.00%
  12. Other Services, except Public Administration: 4.70%
  13. Public Administration: 4.70%

Education

• Educational Attainment
  1. % of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher: 34.30%
  2. % of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate's Degree: 28.40%
  3. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates: 26.40%
  4. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School: 10.80%
• School Enrollment Composition
  1. % of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School: 25.13%
  2. % of Population Aged 3 Years & Older not Enrolled in School: 74.87%

Religion

• Religious Composition of Adults
  1. Evangelical Protestant: 16.50%
  2. Mainline Protestant: 5.20%
  3. Historically Black Protestant: 2.20%
  4. Catholic: 18.70%
  5. Orthodox Christian: 0.40%
  6. Other Adherents: 0.10%
  7. Muslim: 1.30%
  8. Jewish: 0.60%
  9. Hindu: 0.40%
  10. Buddhist: 0.30%
  11. Unaffiliated: 54.30%
• Importance of Religion in One's Life Among Adults
  1. % Very religious: 37.00%
  2. % Moderately religious: 30.00%
  3. % Nonreligious: 33.00%

Public Opinion

• Party Affiliation Among Adults
  1. Republican/lean Rep.: 38.00%
  2. Democrat/lean Dem.: 45.00%
  3. No lean: 17.00%
• Political Ideology Among Adults
  1. Conservative: 33.60%
  2. Moderate: 34.30%
  3. Liberal: 28.20%
  4. Don’t know: 3.90%
• Views About Abortion Among Adults
  1. Legal in all/most cases: 65.00%
  2. Illegal in all/most cases: 35.00%
• Should There Be More Restrictions on the Current Process of Purchasing a Gun?
  1. Yes: 66.35%
  2. No: 33.65%
  3. Other: 0.00%

Ask the Experts

As the first caucus and primary-election states, respectively, Iowa and New Hampshire share a crucial role in the presidential-nominating process. For candidates, they are the “make or break” states that affirm whether their candidacy is viable enough to continue in subsequent primaries. But is there a better system? We asked a panel of experts to weigh in on this and other related issues. Click on the experts’ profiles to read their bios and thoughts on the following key questions:

1. Should states that mirror the national electorate come earlier in the primary process? How would this change U.S. elections?
2. Should the primary system be changed to have a single national primary day?
3. Given the demographic projections, should states with growing Latino and other minority populations receive more attention from candidates?

Ask the Experts

Howard Schweber
Professor of American Politics and Political Theory, Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison
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Dr. Alison Dagnes
Professor & Chair, Political Science Department – Shippensburg University
Read More

Donald Critchlow
Professor, SHPRS History Faculty; Center Director & Katzin Family Professor of History, Center for American Institutions; Instructor, Osher Lifelong Learning Institute – Arizona State University
Read More

Kevin M. Esterling
Professor of Public Policy and Political Science; Director, Laboratory for Technology, Communication and Democracy – University of California Riverside
Read More

Jeffrey M. Berry
Skuse Professor of Political Science Emeritus – Tufts University
Read More

Stanley Renshon
Professor, Political Science – City University of New York Graduate Center
Read More

More Experts

Methodology

To determine which states most closely resemble the sociodemographic anatomy of the U.S. and its stances on certain national issues, WalletHub examined five key dimensions as they relate to the remaining primary-election states: 1) Sociodemographics, 2) Economy, 3) Education, 4) Religion, and 5) Public Opinion.

First, we compiled 22 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. For each metric, we calculated the absolute difference between the value for each state and the U.S. average value.

In order to calculate the Overall Electorate Representation Index, we weighted the differences between the state and the U.S. based on each metric’s weight and calculated a score between 0 and 100, wherein 100 corresponds with a perfect match with the U.S. reference values. Finally, we ranked the states based on the values of the Overall Electorate Representation Index.

In some cases, due to margins of error, the percentages for the subcomponents of a given metric did not add up to 100 percent, in which case we made a slight proportional adjustment so that the sum of the percentages equals 100 percent.

Sociodemographics – Total Points: 20

• Gender: Full Weight
  1. % of Male
  2. % of Female
• Age: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Aged 19 & Younger
  2. % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24
  3. % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34
  4. % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44
  5. % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54
  6. % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64
  7. % of Population Aged 65 & Older
• Race: Full Weight
  1. % of White Population
  2. % of Black or African American Population
  3. % of American Indian or Alaskan Population
  4. % of Asian Population
  5. % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population
  6. % of Other Population
  7. % of Hispanic Population
• Family Relationship: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Who Are Householders
  2. % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households)
  3. % of Population Who Are Children (in Households)
  4. % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households)
  5. % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households)
• Health Insurance Coverage: Half Weight
  1. % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage
  2. % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage
• Place of Birth: Half Weight
  1. % of Foreign-Born Population
  2. % of Native Population

Economy – Total Points: 20

• % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels: Full Weight
  1. Less than $25,000
  2. $25,000 – 34,999
  3. $35,000 – 49,999
  4. $50,000 – $74,999
  5. $75,000 – $99,999
  6. $100,000 – $149,999
  7. $150,000 or More
• Poverty Rate: Half Weight
  1. % of Families in Poverty
  2. % of Families Above Poverty Line
• Wealth Gap: Half Weight
• Food Stamp Entitlement of Households: Half Weight
  1. % of Households Receiving Food Stamps
  2. % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps
• Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees: Half Weight
• Unemployment Rate: Half Weight
• Length of Average Workweek: Quarter Weight
• Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 & Older by Industry: Full Weight
  1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining
  2. Construction
  3. Manufacturing
  4. Wholesale Trade
  5. Retail Trade
  6. Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
  7. Information
  8. Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
  9. Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services
  10. Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance
  11. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services
  12. Other Services, except Public Administration
  13. Public Administration

Education – Total Points: 20

• Educational Attainment: Full Weight
  1. % of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
  2. % of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate's Degree
  3. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates
  4. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School
• School Enrollment: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School
  2. % of Population Aged 3 & Older not Enrolled in School

Religion – Total Points: 20

• Religious Composition of Adults: Full Weight
  1. Evangelical Protestant
  2. Mainline Protestant
  3. Historically Black Protestant
  4. Catholic
  5. Orthodox Christian
  6. Other Adherents
  7. Muslim
  8. Jewish
  9. Hindu
  10. Buddhist
  11. Unaffiliated
• Importance of Religion in One's Life Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Very religious
  2. Moderately religious
  3. Nonreligious

Public Opinion – Total Points: 20

• Party Affiliation Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Republican/lean Rep.
  2. Democrat/lean Dem.
  3. No lean
• Political Ideology Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Conservative
  2. Moderate
  3. Liberal
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Abortion Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Legal in all/most cases
  2. Illegal in all/most cases
• Should There Be More Restrictions on the Current Process of Purchasing a Gun?: Full Weight
  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Other

 
Sources: Data used to create these rankings were collected as of January 30, 2024 from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gallup, PRRI, The Association of Religion Data Archives and iSideWith.com.

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