What If Hillary Wins? Expert Predictions For Your Wallet

Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Hillary Rodham Clinton do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?

To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Sec. Clinton become the second President Clinton on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Trump victory. Happy voting!

 

Personal Taxes

Annual Income	Clinton’s Proposed Tax Rate	Current Rate
$5,000,000+	43.6%	39.6%
$415,050 to $4,999,999.99	39.6%	39.6%
$413,350 to $415,049.99	35.0%	35.0%
$190,150 to $413,349.99	33.0%	33.0%
$91,150 to $190,149.99	28.0%	28.0%
$37,650 to $91,149.99	25.0%	25.0%
$9,275 to $37,649.99	15.0%	15.0%
$0 to $9,274.99	10.0%	10.0%

 

• Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
• Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Clinton): $30.4B

 

Other Notable Tax Policy Changes

 

Corporate Taxes

Issue	Clinton’s Stance
Top Corporate Tax Rate	No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Top Pass-Through Rate	No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Taxation of future foreign earnings	No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings	No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Inversions	Impose an “exit tax” on corporations who leave the country or transfer (virtual) assets to another country
Offshoring	Reclaim tax breaks from corporations that ship jobs overseas and use proceeds to invest in America. Provide tax incentives to encourage investment in the hardest-hit manufacturing communities
Cost Recovery	No Stated Position
Business interest expense	No Stated Position
R&D Expenses	Use revenue from closed loopholes to help drive growth and strengthen R&D
Derivatives	Require annual “mark to market” for contracts annually;
Other Business Provisions	Eliminate tax incentives for fossil fuels. End the “Bermuda reinsurance loophole”. Tax high-frequency trading

 

Ask the Experts

Joshua D. Rosenberg
Professor of Law, University of San Francisco School of Law
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James N. Mohs
Assistant Professor in the Department of Accounting, Taxation and Law at University of New Haven
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Stock Market

Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors

• Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 13.84% annual rate with a Democratic president and a divided Congress.
• The S&P 500 has grown at a 17.03% annual rate with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.

 

Unemployment

Initiative	Planned Investment	More Info
Youth Employment	$20 billion	Program will: Support millions of youth jobs by providing direct federal funding for local programs that will put our kids to work.
Formerly Incarcerated People	$5 billion	Program will: Create reentry programs for formerly incarcerated people
Small Business Growth	$25 billion	Program will: Support entrepreneurship and small business growth in underserved communities
Infrastructure Opportunity Fund	$50 billion	Program will: Make significant new investments in public transit systems that connect the unemployed and underemployed to the jobs they need. Rebuild crumbling water systems to safeguard the public health and save billions of gallons of drinking water. Work to ensure that these investments are creating jobs and opportunity for local residents and small businesses.
Housing Investment Program	$25 billion	Program will: Support families as they save for sustainable homeownership. Build more affordable rental housing near good jobs and good schools. Overcome pockets of distress.

 

Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors

• Historically, the unemployment has fallen by an average of 0.85 percentage points with a Democratic president and divided Congress.
• The unemployment rate has fallen by an average of 0.43 percentage point with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.

 

Education

Issue	Clinton’s Position	Clinton’s Comments
Charter Schools	Supports them	“While I do support nonprofit charter schools, which comprise the vast majority of public charter schools today, I don’t support for-profit charter schools. At the federal level, for-profit charter schools are already prohibited from receiving funding through programs like the Replication and Expansion of High-Quality Charter Schools Program – a step I fully support.”
Common Core	Supports it	“When states came together on Common Core, I thought that was a laudable effort. But, like many Americans, I have concerns about how the Common Core has been implemented.”
Debt-Free College	Supports it for all, as well as tuition-free college for some	“I’ve put forward a plan to make college tuition-free for working families, and debt-free for all. We’ll also lift the burden of student debt. It’s called the “New College Compact…”

 

• Clinton won the endorsement of the two largest teachers’ unions: NEA and AFT.

 

Social Security

Issue	Clinton’s Stance	Clinton’s Comments
Retirement Age	Opposed to raising it	“An unfair idea that will particularly hurt the seniors who have worked the hardest throughout their lives.”
Benefit Cuts	No cuts (Opposes closing the long-term shortfall on the backs of the middle class, whether through benefit cuts or tax increases.)	“Social Security works well, but it should work better.”
Benefit Increases	Supports them for: Widows Family Caregivers	“Social Security works well, but it should work better.”
Cost-Of-Living Adjustments	Against it	“Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.”
Payroll Tax	Raise payroll “tax cap” to an estimated $250,000	“Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.”
Privatization	Against it	“We can never let Republicans cut or privatize Social Security - we should protect and expand it.”

 

Ask the Experts

Michael A. Lewis
Associate Professor in the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College
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Lisa A. Gennetian
Research Professor at the Institute of Human Development and Social Change at New York University, Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development
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Richard F. Keevey
Senior Policy Fellow in the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
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David Pate
Associate Professor in the Helen Bader School of Social Welfare and in the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Founder of the Center for Family Policy and Practice
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Health Care

Issue	Clinton’s Stance
Health Insurance	Create a tax credit of up to $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to help pay high out-of-pocket medical costs. Require insurers to pay for at least three doctor’s visits a year. Prohibit providers from charging out-of- network rates for treatment at in-network facilities. Allow all immigrants to buy ACA marketplace coverage.
Medicare	Allow Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices. Extend Medicaid drug rebates to low- income beneficiaries. Allow individuals to buy-into Medicare at a certain age (50 or 55 years old). Expand Medicaid as part of the ACA.
Medicaid	Supports increased federal match rates (100% match for three years) to encourage all states to expand Medicaid.
ACA	Supports the law but wants to reduce cost. Wants to repeal the “Cadillac” tax.

 

Ask the Experts

Mónika López Anuarbe
Assistant Professor of Economics at Connecticut College
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Sara Markowitz
Professor of Economics at Emory University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
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Devin Schindler
Professor of Health Care and Constitutional Law at Western Michigan University, Cooley Law School
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John F. McCracken
Clinical Professor of Healthcare Leadership & Management in the Naveen Jindal School of Management at the University of Texas at Dallas
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Minimum Wage

Issue	Current Minimum Wage	Clinton’s Recommended Minimum Wage	Raise’s Effect on Taxpayers
Minimum Wage|$7.25|$12|770,000 jobs would be lost

• The following states have a minimum wage of $7.50 or higher: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
• California, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.

 

Sources: This report is based on WalletHub projections as well as data from Tax Foundation, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, the White House, EY, Hillary for America, The Washington Post, Editorial Projects in Education, USA Today, United States Department of Labor, Cable News Network, EPI, National Conference of State Legislatures and The Huffington Post.