Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Hillary Rodham Clinton do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?
To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Sec. Clinton become the second President Clinton on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Trump victory. Happy voting!
| Area Of Interest | Projected Impact |
|---|---|
| Personal Taxes | Higher tax rate (43.6%) for people who make $5M+ |
| Corporate Taxes | Close various loopholes and regulate high-frequency trading |
| Stock Market | Historically, market has increased by an average of 13.84% with a Divided Congress |
| Unemployment | Spend $125B on job-creation initiatives |
| Education | Debt-free college for families who earn less than $125K per year; Common Core remains |
| Social Security | No Higher retirement age and payroll tax cap ($250K); no privatized Social Security; |
| Health Care | ACA improvements; Immigrants allowed to participate |
| Minimum Wage | Higher federal minimum ($12/hr.) |
Personal Taxes
| Annual Income | Clinton’s Proposed Tax Rate | Current Rate |
|---|---|---|
| $5,000,000+ | 43.6% | 39.6% |
| $415,050 to $4,999,999.99 | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| $413,350 to $415,049.99 | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| $190,150 to $413,349.99 | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| $91,150 to $190,149.99 | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| $37,650 to $91,149.99 | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| $9,275 to $37,649.99 | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| $0 to $9,274.99 | 10.0% | 10.0% |
- Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
- Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Clinton): $30.4B
Other Notable Tax Policy Changes
| Issue | Clinton’s Stance | Clinton’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Estate Tax | Permanently reduce the tax threshold for estates to $3.5 million ($7 million for married couples) with no adjustment for future inflation Increase the top rate to 45% percent Establish $1 million lifetime gift tax exemption | “Then there’s the Estate Tax, which Trump wants to eliminate altogether. If you believe that he’s as wealthy as he says, that alone would save the Trump family $4 billion. It would do nothing for 99.8 percent of Americans. So they’d get a $4 billion tax cut, and 99.8 percent of Americans get nothing.” |
| Caregiver Benefits | Cap child care costs at 10% of income Create tax credit for caregivers of elderly or disabled relatives | "[Raising children] is the most important job that any of us can do, and we are making it really expensive and very difficult. If we don't support families, we don't support making our country or any community as strong as it can and should be." |
| Itemized Deductions | Cap all itemized deductions at a tax value of 28%, with exception for charitable contributions | "As a result of loopholes and the 'private tax system' of lawyers and accountants who enable complex strategies to shelter and lower the bill on income for the most fortunate, some of the wealthiest taxpayers continue to pay low effective rates on their income." |
| Retirement Accounts | Close the “Romney loophole” on individual retirement accounts | "[Billions of dollars] are drained from retirement accounts because of high fees and conflicts of interest in the investment management industry." |
| Alternative Minimum Tax | Retain the AMT | "I said that I'm in favor of doing something about the AMT. How we do it and how we put the package together, everybody knows, is extremely complicated. ... I want to get to a fair and progressive tax system. The AMT has to be part of what we try to change when I'm president." |
Ask the Experts
- Shawn Novak
Clinical Associate Professor in the School Of Public Affairs at Arizona State University
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- Jack Borke
Professor Emeritus of Accounting at University of Wisconsin-Platteville
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- Andrew Schmidt
Associate Professor of Accountancy and Poole Scholar in the Poole College of Management at North Carolina State University
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Corporate Taxes
| Issue | Clinton’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Top Corporate Tax Rate | No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”; |
| Top Pass-Through Rate | No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”; |
| Taxation of future foreign earnings | No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”; |
| Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings | No specifics on rates Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”; |
| Inversions | Impose an “exit tax” on corporations who leave the country or transfer (virtual) assets to another country |
| Offshoring | Reclaim tax breaks from corporations that ship jobs overseas and use proceeds to invest in America. Provide tax incentives to encourage investment in the hardest-hit manufacturing communities |
| Cost Recovery | No Stated Position |
| Business interest expense | No Stated Position |
| R&D Expenses | Use revenue from closed loopholes to help drive growth and strengthen R&D |
| Derivatives | Require annual “mark to market” for contracts annually; |
| Other Business Provisions | Eliminate tax incentives for fossil fuels. End the “Bermuda reinsurance loophole”. Tax high-frequency trading |
Ask the Experts
- Joshua D. Rosenberg
Professor of Law, University of San Francisco School of Law
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- James N. Mohs
Assistant Professor in the Department of Accounting, Taxation and Law at University of New Haven
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Stock Market
Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors
- Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 13.84% annual rate with a Democratic president and a divided Congress.
- The S&P 500 has grown at a 17.03% annual rate with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
- George Bittlingmayer
Wagnon Distinguished Professor of Finance at University of Kansas School of Business
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- Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Distinguished Professor of Finance, and Goldyne & Irwin Hearsh Chair in Money and Banking at University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson School of Management
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- Mary E. Lovely
Chair of the International Relations Program, Melvin A. Eggers Faculty Scholar, and Professor of Economics in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University
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Unemployment
| Initiative | Planned Investment | More Info |
|---|---|---|
| Youth Employment | $20 billion | Program will: Support millions of youth jobs by providing direct federal funding for local programs that will put our kids to work. |
| Formerly Incarcerated People | $5 billion | Program will: Create reentry programs for formerly incarcerated people |
| Small Business Growth | $25 billion | Program will: Support entrepreneurship and small business growth in underserved communities |
| Infrastructure Opportunity Fund | $50 billion | Program will: Make significant new investments in public transit systems that connect the unemployed and underemployed to the jobs they need. Rebuild crumbling water systems to safeguard the public health and save billions of gallons of drinking water. Work to ensure that these investments are creating jobs and opportunity for local residents and small businesses. |
| Housing Investment Program | $25 billion | Program will: Support families as they save for sustainable homeownership. Build more affordable rental housing near good jobs and good schools. Overcome pockets of distress. |
Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors
- Historically, the unemployment has fallen by an average of 0.85 percentage points with a Democratic president and divided Congress.
- The unemployment rate has fallen by an average of 0.43 percentage point with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.
Ask the Experts
- Jack Fiorito
Department Chair and J. Frank Dame Professor of Management at Florida State University, College of Business
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- Joseph Ritter
Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Economics, and Director of Graduate Studies at University of Minnesota
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Education
| Issue | Clinton’s Position | Clinton’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Charter Schools | Supports them | “While I do support nonprofit charter schools, which comprise the vast majority of public charter schools today, I don’t support for-profit charter schools. At the federal level, for-profit charter schools are already prohibited from receiving funding through programs like the Replication and Expansion of High-Quality Charter Schools Program – a step I fully support.” |
| Common Core | Supports it | “When states came together on Common Core, I thought that was a laudable effort. But, like many Americans, I have concerns about how the Common Core has been implemented.” |
| Debt-Free College | Supports it for all, as well as tuition-free college for some | “I’ve put forward a plan to make college tuition-free for working families, and debt-free for all. We’ll also lift the burden of student debt. It’s called the “New College Compact…” |
Ask the Experts
- William Elliott III
Director of the Center on Assets, Education, and Inclusion at University of Kansas, School of Social Welfare
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- Jay Schalin
Director of Policy Analysis at The John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy
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- Wes Yin
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
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- Marc Pilisuk
Professor Emeritus at The University of California and Adjunct Professor at Saybrook University
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- Ana M. Martínez Alemán
Professor of Higher Education and Chair of the Educational Leadership and Higher Education Department at Boston College
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- Nathan Daun-Barnett
Associate Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy in the Graduate School of Education at the University at Buffalo
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Social Security
| Issue | Clinton’s Stance | Clinton’s Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Retirement Age | Opposed to raising it | “An unfair idea that will particularly hurt the seniors who have worked the hardest throughout their lives.” |
| Benefit Cuts | No cuts (Opposes closing the long-term shortfall on the backs of the middle class, whether through benefit cuts or tax increases.) | “Social Security works well, but it should work better.” |
| Benefit Increases | Supports them for: Widows Family Caregivers | “Social Security works well, but it should work better.” |
| Cost-Of-Living Adjustments | Against it | “Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.” |
| Payroll Tax | Raise payroll “tax cap” to an estimated $250,000 | “Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.” |
| Privatization | Against it | “We can never let Republicans cut or privatize Social Security - we should protect and expand it.” |
Ask the Experts
- Michael A. Lewis
Associate Professor in the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College
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- Lisa A. Gennetian
Research Professor at the Institute of Human Development and Social Change at New York University, Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development
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- Richard F. Keevey
Senior Policy Fellow in the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
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- David Pate
Associate Professor in the Helen Bader School of Social Welfare and in the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Founder of the Center for Family Policy and Practice
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Health Care
| Issue | Clinton’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Health Insurance | Create a tax credit of up to $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to help pay high out-of-pocket medical costs. Require insurers to pay for at least three doctor’s visits a year. Prohibit providers from charging out-of- network rates for treatment at in-network facilities. Allow all immigrants to buy ACA marketplace coverage. |
| Medicare | Allow Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices. Extend Medicaid drug rebates to low- income beneficiaries. Allow individuals to buy-into Medicare at a certain age (50 or 55 years old). Expand Medicaid as part of the ACA. |
| Medicaid | Supports increased federal match rates (100% match for three years) to encourage all states to expand Medicaid. |
| ACA | Supports the law but wants to reduce cost. Wants to repeal the “Cadillac” tax. |
Ask the Experts
- Mónika López Anuarbe
Assistant Professor of Economics at Connecticut College
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- Sara Markowitz
Professor of Economics at Emory University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
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- Devin Schindler
Professor of Health Care and Constitutional Law at Western Michigan University, Cooley Law School
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- John F. McCracken
Clinical Professor of Healthcare Leadership & Management in the Naveen Jindal School of Management at the University of Texas at Dallas
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Minimum Wage
| Issue | Current Minimum Wage | Clinton’s Recommended Minimum Wage | Raise’s Effect on Taxpayers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum Wage|$7.25|$12|770,000 jobs would be lost |
- The following states have a minimum wage of $7.50 or higher: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
- California, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.
Ask the Experts
- Sanford M. Jacoby
Distinguished Research Professor of Management, Public Policy, and History at UCLA Anderson School of Management
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- Ken Jacobs
Chair of the Center for Labor Research and Education at University of California, Berkeley
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- Wes Yin
Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the Anderson School of Management at UCLA
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- David L. Lindauer
Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College
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Sources: This report is based on WalletHub projections as well as data from Tax Foundation, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, the White House, EY, Hillary for America, The Washington Post, Editorial Projects in Education, USA Today, United States Department of Labor, Cable News Network, EPI, National Conference of State Legislatures and The Huffington Post.