The homicide rate is increasing rapidly in the U.S., so much so that President Joe Biden has made tackling the problem one of his newest priorities. Alarmingly, homicide rates have risen by an average of 33% in 50 of the most populated U.S. cities between Q2 2019 and Q2 2021, and are still rising.
In order to determine which cities have the biggest homicide problems, WalletHub compared 50 of the largest U.S. cities based on per capita homicides in Q2 2021, as well as per capita homicides in Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2020 and Q2 2019.
Main Findings
Cities with the Highest Increase in Homicide Rates During Covid
| Overall Rank | City | Total Score | Homicide Cases per Capita (Q2 2021) | Change in Homicide Cases per Capita (Q2 2021 vs Q2 2020) | Change in Homicide Cases per Capita (Q2 2021 vs Q2 2019) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans, LA | 95.17 | 17.91 (1) | 0.00 (30) | 7.42 (1) |
| 2 | Cincinnati, OH | 91.22 | 16.26 (3) | 2.65 (5) | 6.30 (2) |
| 3 | Baltimore, MD | 72.63 | 15.27 (5) | 0.00 (30) | 0.82 (25) |
| 4 | Philadelphia, PA | 68.20 | 9.63 (8) | 2.79 (3) | 4.43 (4) |
| 5 | Detroit, MI | 67.03 | 12.45 (6) | 1.04 (15) | 1.33 (21) |
| 6 | Milwaukee, WI | 66.32 | 9.08 (9) | 2.02 (10) | 4.71 (3) |
| 7 | Louisville, KY | 65.14 | 8.90 (10) | 3.88 (1) | 3.40 (8) |
| 8 | Atlanta, GA | 60.99 | 8.18 (11) | 2.05 (8) | 3.48 (6) |
| 9 | Memphis, TN | 59.02 | 10.12 (7) | -1.84 (47) | 2.30 (10) |
| 10 | Kansas City, MO | 57.69 | 16.45 (2) | -16.24 (50) | 1.64 (15) |
| 11 | Minneapolis, MN | 56.10 | 6.19 (16) | 1.67 (11) | 4.04 (5) |
| 12 | St. Louis, MO | 55.45 | 15.58 (4) | -6.49 (49) | -3.57 (50) |
| 13 | St. Petersburg, FL | 53.49 | 4.97 (20) | 3.44 (2) | 3.44 (7) |
| 14 | Washington, DC | 53.30 | 7.22 (13) | 1.01 (17) | 1.88 (13) |
| 15 | Indianapolis, IN | 51.53 | 6.48 (14) | 0.69 (19) | 2.20 (11) |
| 16 | Norfolk, VA | 50.94 | 6.13 (17) | 2.04 (9) | 1.64 (16) |
| 17 | Albuquerque, NM | 49.99 | 6.26 (15) | 2.68 (4) | 0.72 (28) |
| 18 | Nashville, TN | 49.66 | 4.97 (21) | 2.26 (6) | 2.41 (9) |
| 19 | Chicago, IL | 49.32 | 7.42 (12) | -1.51 (46) | 1.25 (22) |
| 20 | Durham, NC | 49.19 | 5.56 (18) | 2.22 (7) | 1.48 (19) |
| 21 | Sacramento, CA | 45.80 | 4.99 (19) | 0.60 (21) | 1.60 (17) |
| 22 | Tucson, AZ | 44.27 | 4.25 (23) | 1.29 (13) | 1.48 (20) |
| 23 | Oklahoma City, OK | 41.69 | 3.26 (28) | 0.78 (18) | 1.86 (14) |
| 24 | Winston-Salem, NC | 41.24 | 4.10 (24) | 0.41 (24) | 0.82 (26) |
| 25 | Riverside, CA | 39.43 | 2.45 (33) | 0.31 (26) | 2.14 (12) |
| 26 | Charlotte, NC | 39.33 | 3.50 (27) | 0.47 (22) | 0.70 (30) |
| 27 | Austin, TX | 38.90 | 2.21 (34) | 1.47 (12) | 1.58 (18) |
| 28 | Oakland, CA | 37.64 | 4.47 (22) | -1.41 (44) | -0.24 (42) |
| 29 | Denver, CO | 37.16 | 3.12 (30) | -0.43 (39) | 0.71 (29) |
| 30 | Dallas, TX | 35.91 | 3.91 (26) | -0.30 (37) | -0.90 (48) |
| 31 | Colorado Springs, CO | 35.87 | 1.72 (38) | 1.08 (14) | 1.08 (23) |
| 32 | Phoenix, AZ | 35.54 | 2.69 (32) | -0.24 (36) | 0.43 (33) |
| 33 | Los Angeles, CA | 34.37 | 2.12 (35) | 0.28 (27) | 0.35 (35) |
| 34 | Las Vegas, NV | 34.05 | 3.15 (29) | -1.42 (45) | -0.16 (40) |
| 35 | Seattle, WA | 33.62 | 1.66 (39) | -0.14 (35) | 0.83 (24) |
| 36 | Raleigh, NC | 33.38 | 1.72 (37) | 0.65 (20) | 0.22 (37) |
| 37 | Fort Worth, TX | 33.18 | 1.83 (36) | 0.00 (30) | 0.34 (36) |
| 38 | New York, NY | 33.02 | 1.44 (41) | 0.04 (29) | 0.75 (27) |
| 39 | Jacksonville, FL | 33.00 | 2.81 (31) | -1.35 (43) | -0.22 (41) |
| 40 | Tulsa, OK | 32.82 | 3.98 (25) | -3.23 (48) | -0.75 (47) |
| 41 | San Diego, CA | 32.53 | 1.42 (42) | 0.14 (28) | 0.50 (31) |
| 42 | El Paso, TX | 30.83 | 0.74 (47) | 0.44 (23) | 0.44 (32) |
| 43 | Boston, MA | 30.68 | 1.46 (40) | 0.00 (30) | -0.29 (43) |
| 44 | Anchorage, AK | 30.59 | 1.02 (44) | 1.02 (16) | -0.34 (44) |
| 45 | Lincoln, NE | 29.62 | 0.70 (48) | 0.35 (25) | 0.00 (38) |
| 46 | Arlington, TX | 29.01 | 1.26 (43) | -0.51 (40) | -0.51 (46) |
| 47 | Madison, WI | 28.21 | 0.39 (50) | -0.78 (41) | 0.39 (34) |
| 48 | Chesapeake, VA | 28.00 | 0.83 (46) | -1.25 (42) | 0.00 (38) |
| 49 | Chandler, AZ | 26.91 | 0.40 (49) | -0.40 (38) | -0.40 (45) |
| 50 | Virginia Beach, VA | 24.15 | 0.89 (45) | 0.00 (30) | -2.44 (49) |
Note: With the exception of “Total Score,” all of the columns in the table above depict the relative rank of that city, where a rank of 1 represents the highest homicide rate and highest increase in homicides, respectively.
Red vs. Blue
Ask the Experts
In order to better understand the recent rise in homicides rates, what causes it, and what impact it will have, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts. You can click on the photos of the experts below to read their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- Why has there been a recent spike in homicides across the country?
- What will it take for the homicide rate to decrease again?
- Will more homicides renew police reputation, or have the opposite effect?
Ask the Experts
- Matthew Hale
Ph.D. – Associate Professor and MPA Program Chair for the Department of Political Science and Public Affairs – Seton Hall University
Read More
- Christopher Salvatore
MA, Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Justice Studies, Coordinator Justice and Families Minor, Chairperson Department of Justice Studies – Montclair State University
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- Diane Birnholz
Lecturer in Law – University of California, Los Angeles School of Law; Former Federal Prosecutor
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- Shaundra Kellam Lewis
Professor of Law, Thurgood Marshall School of Law – Texas Southern University
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- Bryanna Fox
Ph.D. – Associate Professor, Department of Criminology, Co-Editor, Justice Quarterly; Co-Director, Center for Justice Research & Policy; Director, SPRUCE Research Lab – University of South Florida
Read More
- Don Hummer
Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, School of Public Affairs – Penn State Harrisburg
Read More
Methodology
In order to assess the changes in homicides across cities, we calculated the number of homicides per capita in Q2 2021 and the change in the number of homicides per capita in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the second quarter of 2020 and 2019.
In determining our sample, we included 50 of the most populated U.S. cities that had locally published homicide data available for our specific time period. We used the UCR definition for criminal homicide. Data from this study is based in some cases on preliminary police department crime date, which is subject to reclassification upon further investigation.
The metrics used are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest homicide rates.
We then determined the weighted average across all metrics to calculate an overall score for each city and used the resulting scores to rank-order the cities.
- Homicides per Capita in Q2 2021: Double Weight (~50.00 Points)
- Change in Homicides (Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2020): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita. - Change in Homicides (Q2 2021 vs. Q2 2019): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita.
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau and Local Crime Statistics.