The homicide rate in the U.S. experienced a rapid increase during the past few years, so much so that President Joe Biden made tackling the problem a priority. There has been some recent good news, though, as homicide rates declined by roughly 7% in 45 of the most populated U.S. cities between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022. The previous quarter saw a nearly 10% year-over-year increase, though, so there’s still a lot of work to be done when it comes to reversing this problem.
In order to determine which cities have the biggest homicide rate problems, WalletHub compared 45 of the largest U.S. cities based on per capita homicides in Q4 2022, as well as per capita homicides in Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021 and Q4 2020.
Main Findings
Cities with the Biggest Homicide Rate Problems
| Overall Rank* | City | Total Score | Homicide Cases per Capita** (Q4 2022) | Change in Homicide Cases per Capita** (Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021) | Change in Homicide Cases per Capita** (Q4 2022 vs Q4 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta, GA | 79.06 | 9.55 (5) | 2.44 (1) | 0.81 (4) |
| 2 | Baltimore, MD | 77.74 | 13.51 (1) | 0.00 (13) | -1.35 (31) |
| 3 | Detroit, MI | 70.22 | 11.46 (3) | 1.24 (4) | -2.32 (40) |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | 69.58 | 7.40 (8) | 0.79 (8) | 1.73 (2) |
| 5 | Kansas City, MO | 65.37 | 7.96 (7) | 2.19 (2) | -0.99 (26) |
| 6 | Chesapeake, VA | 62.43 | 4.05 (15) | 1.62 (3) | 2.43 (1) |
| 7 | Chicago, IL | 55.48 | 6.49 (10) | -0.04 (20) | -0.36 (19) |
| 8 | Memphis, TN | 51.03 | 10.57 (4) | -4.42 (44) | -1.89 (38) |
| 9 | Jacksonville, FL | 49.39 | 3.63 (17) | 0.96 (5) | 0.00 (12) |
| 10 | Denver, CO | 48.34 | 3.25 (19) | 0.00 (13) | 0.85 (3) |
| 11 | Colorado Springs, CO | 46.35 | 2.95 (21) | 0.00 (13) | 0.63 (6) |
| 12 | St. Louis, MO | 45.23 | 12.22 (2) | -5.61 (45) | -6.28 (44) |
| 13 | Raleigh, NC | 44.61 | 1.73 (31) | 0.87 (7) | 0.65 (5) |
| 14 | Boston, MA | 44.09 | 1.78 (30) | 0.89 (6) | 0.45 (8) |
| 15 | Louisville, KY | 43.61 | 5.24 (12) | -0.63 (31) | -1.75 (37) |
| 16 | San Francisco, CA | 42.79 | 1.85 (29) | 0.23 (11) | 0.58 (7) |
| 17 | Norfolk, VA | 42.31 | 4.19 (13) | -0.42 (27) | -1.26 (29) |
| 18 | Phoenix, AZ | 41.45 | 2.83 (23) | 0.06 (12) | -0.57 (22) |
| 19 | Minneapolis, MN | 40.89 | 3.76 (16) | -0.47 (29) | -1.18 (27) |
| 20 | Philadelphia, PA | 40.72 | 6.89 (9) | -2.50 (40) | -2.57 (41) |
| 21 | Durham, NC | 39.56 | 3.58 (18) | -0.36 (25) | -1.43 (33) |
| 22 | Arlington, TX | 38.55 | 1.02 (37) | 0.25 (10) | 0.25 (10) |
| 23 | Oakland, CA | 38.45 | 4.11 (14) | -1.14 (35) | -1.60 (35) |
| 24 | Washington, DC | 38.26 | 6.00 (11) | -3.81 (42) | -1.32 (30) |
| 25 | New Orleans, LA | 38.08 | 8.85 (6) | -3.91 (43) | -4.43 (44) |
| 26 | Omaha, NE | 37.66 | 1.43 (32) | -0.20 (22) | 0.00 (12) |
| 27 | Oklahoma City, OK | 37.31 | 2.23 (27) | -0.15 (21) | -0.89 (24) |
| 28 | Chandler, AZ | 36.85 | 0.73 (40) | 0.37 (9) | 0.00 (12) |
| 29 | New York, NY | 36.15 | 1.10 (35) | -0.21 (23) | -0.07 (17) |
| 30 | Albuquerque, NM | 36.06 | 2.85 (22) | -1.96 (38) | -0.36 (18) |
| 31 | Los Angeles, CA | 35.91 | 2.00 (28) | -0.51 (30) | -0.74 (23) |
| 32 | Seattle, WA | 34.93 | 1.10 (34) | 0.00 (13) | -0.55 (21) |
| 33 | Virginia Beach, VA | 34.91 | 0.66 (41) | -0.44 (28) | 0.22 (11) |
| 34 | Madison, WI | 34.38 | 0.38 (42) | 0.00 (13) | 0.00 (12) |
| 35 | Garland, TX | 33.80 | 0.82 (38) | -1.22 (36) | 0.41 (9) |
| 36 | Charlotte, NC | 33.78 | 2.54 (26) | -1.04 (34) | -1.39 (32) |
| 37 | Tucson, AZ | 33.23 | 2.60 (25) | -0.93 (33) | -1.67 (36) |
| 38 | Lincoln, NE | 33.20 | 0.35 (43) | -0.35 (24) | 0.00 (12) |
| 39 | Sacramento, CA | 30.29 | 0.00 (44) | -0.39 (26) | -0.39 (20) |
| 40 | Nashville, TN | 30.19 | 2.78 (24) | 0.00 (13) | -3.37 (43) |
| 41 | Scottsdale, AZ | 28.10 | 0.00 (44) | 0.00 (13) | -1.26 (28) |
| 42 | Anchorage, AK | 26.69 | 1.03 (36) | -0.68 (32) | -2.05 (39) |
| 43 | Fort Worth, TX | 26.52 | 0.77 (39) | -1.76 (37) | -0.99 (25) |
| 44 | Dallas, TX | 25.47 | 3.15 (20) | -2.23 (39) | -3.15 (42) |
| 45 | St. Petersburg, FL | 21.65 | 1.16 (33) | -3.10 (41) | -1.55 (34) |
Notes:
*With the exception of “Total Score,” all of the columns in the table above depict the relative rank of that city, where a rank of 1 represents the highest homicide rate and highest increase in homicides, respectively.
**Calculated as rate per 100,000 residents.
- Highest
- 1. Baltimore, MD
- 2. St. Louis, MO
- 3. Detroit, MI
- 4. Memphis, TN
- 5. Atlanta, GA
- Lowest
- 41. Virginia Beach, VA
- 42. Madison, WI
- 43. Lincoln, NE
- T-44. Sacramento, CA
- T-44. Scottsdale, AZ
- Highest
- 1. Atlanta, GA
- 2. Kansas City, MO
- 3. Chesapeake, VA
- 4. Detroit, MI
- 5. Jacksonville, FL
- Lowest
- 41. St. Petersburg, FL
- 42. Washington, DC
- 43. New Orleans, LA
- 44. Memphis, TN
- 45. St. Louis, MO
- Highest
- 1. Chesapeake, VA
- 2. Las Vegas, NV
- 3. Denver, CO
- 4. Atlanta, GA
- 5. Raleigh, NC
- Lowest
- 41. Philadelphia, PA
- 42. Dallas, TX
- 43. Nashville, TN
- T-44. New Orleans, LA
- T-44. St. Louis, MO
Note: Above rankings from the infographic are based on the scores obtained by each city for the indicated metrics. Cities with the same metric score were attributed the same ranking. Based on historical values, cities for which the metric value crossed a certain threshold were attributed the same score.
Blue Cities vs. Red Cities
Ask the Experts
In order to better understand the recent rise in homicides rates, what causes it, and what impact it will have, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts. You can click on the photos of the experts below to read their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- Why has there been a recent spike in homicides across the country?
- What will it take for the homicide rate to decrease again?
- Will more homicides renew police reputation, or have the opposite effect?
- How has the homicide rate increase impacted life in U.S. cities?
- Will 2023 bring new solutions to this problem or will this upward trend continue?
Ask the Experts
Clinical Lecturer in Law and the Policing, Law, and Policy Director of the Justice Collaboratory – Yale Law School
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Ph.D. – Associate Professor of Public Policy, Frank Batten School of Leadership & Public Policy – The University of Virginia
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Ph.D. – Associate Professor, Criminal Justice and Legal Studies – Washburn University
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Ph.D. – Chair and Keith A. Ferguson Endowed Professor, Department of Criminal Justice, College of Liberal Arts – University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
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Ph.D. – Senior Professor, Criminal Justice, Criminology and Criminal Justice – Lindenwood University
Read More
Methodology
In order to assess the changes in homicides across cities, we calculated the number of homicides per capita in Q4 2022 and the change in the number of homicides per capita in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2020.
In determining our sample, we included 45 of the most populated U.S. cities that had locally published homicide data available for our specific time period. We used the UCR definition for criminal homicide. Data from this study is based in some cases on preliminary police department crime data, which is subject to reclassification upon further investigation.
The metrics used are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest homicide rates.
We then determined the weighted average across all metrics to calculate an overall score for each city and used the resulting scores to rank-order the cities.
- Homicides per Capita in Q4 2022: Double Weight (~50.00 Points)
- Change in Homicides (Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita. - Change in Homicides (Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2020): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita.
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau and Local Crime Statistics.