The U.S. is gradually recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, and states have heavily relaxed their COVID-19 restrictions. As a result, the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.8% from its high of 14.8% in April 2020.
The country’s progress toward economic recovery has been largely possible because of the strides it has made toward a public health recovery, due to the distribution of the vaccine. As of June 7, around 42% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The country has already seen a significant decline in new COVID-19 cases and deaths, and that decline will only continue as more people get vaccinated. The greater level of safety will also lead to increased consumer confidence.
Even though the U.S. is making progress as a whole, some states are recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic much faster than others. In order to determine the states that are having the most successful recoveries, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 21 key metrics. Our data set ranges from the share of the population fully vaccinated to the real GDP compared to pre-COVID levels.
Main Findings
States Recovering the Quickest from COVID-19
| Overall Rank | State | Total Score | COVID Health | Leisure & Travel | Economy & Labor Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa | 75.25 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Nebraska | 73.05 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 3 | Alaska | 72.18 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | South Dakota | 68.99 | 19 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | New Hampshire | 65.31 | 8 | 31 | 17 |
| 6 | Utah | 64.81 | 14 | 26 | 6 |
| 7 | Kansas | 64.61 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | Connecticut | 63.68 | 3 | 33 | 45 |
| 9 | Arkansas | 62.11 | 30 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Idaho | 61.63 | 28 | 10 | 3 |
| 11 | Maine | 61.00 | 12 | 12 | 35 |
| 12 | Mississippi | 60.17 | 27 | 14 | 8 |
| 13 | Vermont | 59.99 | 4 | 48 | 28 |
| 14 | Massachusetts | 59.29 | 5 | 43 | 49 |
| 15 | North Dakota | 58.45 | 24 | 11 | 23 |
| 16 | Virginia | 57.61 | 11 | 37 | 38 |
| 17 | North Carolina | 57.52 | 21 | 28 | 25 |
| 18 | Rhode Island | 57.48 | 20 | 23 | 29 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 57.12 | 34 | 21 | 10 |
| 20 | Minnesota | 57.11 | 25 | 30 | 16 |
| 21 | Nevada | 56.16 | 16 | 25 | 46 |
| 22 | Missouri | 56.12 | 39 | 4 | 21 |
| 23 | Maryland | 55.60 | 17 | 42 | 30 |
| 24 | South Carolina | 55.45 | 37 | 20 | 14 |
| 25 | California | 55.15 | 10 | 44 | 47 |
| 26 | Kentucky | 54.92 | 36 | 17 | 24 |
| 27 | Tennessee | 54.29 | 29 | 18 | 32 |
| 28 | Hawaii | 53.74 | 2 | 51 | 50 |
| 29 | Colorado | 53.35 | 23 | 35 | 37 |
| 30 | District of Columbia | 53.32 | 18 | 46 | 26 |
| 31 | New Jersey | 52.85 | 15 | 41 | 48 |
| 32 | Ohio | 52.67 | 35 | 19 | 33 |
| 33 | Indiana | 52.62 | 46 | 16 | 12 |
| 34 | Oklahoma | 52.52 | 38 | 7 | 39 |
| 35 | New York | 52.31 | 9 | 45 | 51 |
| 36 | New Mexico | 51.58 | 26 | 39 | 36 |
| 37 | Texas | 51.26 | 32 | 27 | 43 |
| 38 | Florida | 50.23 | 44 | 29 | 20 |
| 39 | Wyoming | 50.09 | 45 | 5 | 31 |
| 40 | Illinois | 49.95 | 33 | 36 | 41 |
| 41 | Alabama | 49.31 | 50 | 22 | 1 |
| 42 | Washington | 49.31 | 22 | 50 | 13 |
| 43 | Arizona | 49.22 | 43 | 38 | 19 |
| 44 | Montana | 48.23 | 49 | 8 | 7 |
| 45 | Delaware | 47.74 | 41 | 32 | 34 |
| 46 | Pennsylvania | 47.42 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| 47 | Georgia | 46.57 | 48 | 24 | 18 |
| 48 | Louisiana | 46.30 | 42 | 34 | 42 |
| 49 | Oregon | 45.69 | 31 | 49 | 22 |
| 50 | West Virginia | 41.17 | 51 | 15 | 11 |
| 51 | Michigan | 38.28 | 47 | 47 | 44 |
Note: With the exception of “Total Score,” all of the columns in the table above depict the relative rank of that state, where a rank of 1 represents the best conditions for that metric category.
Ask the Experts
In order to give more insight about recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts. Click on the pictures of the experts below to read their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- How will the vaccine rollout help the economic recovery?
- Will the long-run job market fully recover from the impact of the pandemic?
- Will companies require getting the COVID-19 vaccine as a condition for employment?
- How has the pandemic transformed consumer spending habits?
- According to analysis of the latest Department of Labor national jobs report, Leisure & Hospitality holds the largest share of all U.S. unemployment caused by the pandemic. What strategies can local and state governments deploy to help shorten the industry’s recovery period?
Ask the Experts
- Joanne Song McLaughlin
Director of Undergraduate Studies, Associate Professor, Department of Economics – University at Buffalo, State University of New York
Read More
- Gerald E. Daniels Jr.
Associate Professor, Associate Director of Undergraduate Studies, Co-Director of the AEA Summer Training Program, Department of Economics – Howard University
Read More
- Giuseppe Moscarini
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics – Yale University
Read More
- Daraius Irani
Ph.D. – Vice President, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research – Towson University
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- Yongchen Zhao
Associate Professor, Economics, College of Business & Economics – Towson University
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- Paul Harrington
Ph.D. – Professor, School of Education’s Higher Education; Director for the Center of Labor Markets and Policy – Drexel University
Read More
Methodology
In order to determine the states recovering the quickest from COVID-19, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across three key dimensions: 1) COVID Health, 2) Leisure & Travel and 3) Economy & Labor Market.
We evaluated those dimensions using 21 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest level of recovery.
We then determined the weighted average across all metrics to calculate an overall score for each state and used the resulting scores to rank-order our sample.
COVID Health – Total Points: 50
- Share of Population Aged 12 and Older Fully Vaccinated: Double Weight (~6.25 Points)
- Share of Vaccine Supply Used: Full Weight (~3.13 Points)
Note: This metric is calculated as follows: Doses Administered / Doses Delivered. - Positive Testing Rate: Double Weight (~6.25 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the positive COVID-19 testing rate in the state between May 19, 2021 and May 25, 2021. - Hospitalization Rate: Triple Weight (~9.38 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the COVID-19 hospitalization rate in the state between May 20, 2021 and May 26, 2021. - Death Rate: Triple Weight (~9.38 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the COVID-19 death rate in the state between June 1, 2021 and June 7, 2021. - Share of COVID-Related Doctor Visits: Full Weight (~3.13 Points)
Note: Averaged estimated percentage of outpatient doctor visits primarily about COVID-related symptoms, between May 28, 2021 and June 3, 2021. - Share of Hospitals with Staff Shortages: Double Weight (~6.25 Points)
Note: This metric refers to hospitals reporting staffing shortages in the week ending May 26, 2021. - Share of Hospitals with Supply Shortages: Double Weight (~6.25 Points)
Note: “Low supply” is defined as a hospital not able to maintain a three-day supply of N95s, face masks, gloves, gowns, or eye protection in the week ending May 26, 2021.
Leisure & Travel – Total Points: 20
- Average Daily Restaurant Visits per Capita: Full Weight (~3.33 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the average number of visits to locations that qualify as “Full-Service Restaurants” normalized by population size between May 24, 2021 to May 30, 2021. - Number of Seated Diners at Restaurants vs Pre-COVID Levels: Full Weight (~3.33 Points)
Note: This metric refers to the number of seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations at restaurants for week ending June 6, 2021 compared to the same of week in 2019. - Retail & Recreation Mobility Index: Full Weight (~3.33 Points)
Note: This metric measures the percentage point increase or decrease in visits for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theatres. - Parks Mobility Index: Full Weight (~3.33 Points)
Note: This metric measures the percentage point increase or decrease in visits for places like national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens. - Gatherings Restrictions of 25 People or Less: Double Weight (~6.67 Points)
Note: This binary metric measures the presence or absence of policies that have banned gatherings of 25+ people in a state.- 1 - States that have not banned gatherings of over 25 people;
- 0 - States that have banned gatherings of over 25 people.
Economy & Labor Market – Total Points: 30
- Real GDP vs Pre-COVID Levels (2020 vs. 2019): Double Weight (~5.45 Points)
- Unemployment Rate vs Pre-COVID Levels: Double Weight (~5.45 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in unemployment rate from April 2021 compared to April 2019. - Total Weekly Job Postings vs Pre-COVID Levels: Full Weight (~2.73 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in weekly unique job postings as of week ending June 4, 2021 relative to January 2020. - Total Weekly Consumer Spending vs Pre-COVID Levels: Full Weight (~2.73 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in the average consumer credit and debit card spending as of week ending May 16, 2021 relative to January 2020. - Small Businesses Work Hours vs Pre-COVID Levels: Full Weight (~2.73 Points)
Note: This metric measures the change in small businesses work hours as of April 9, 2021 compared to the median for that day of the week in January 2020. - Small Businesses Open vs Pre-COVID Levels: Full Weight (~2.73 Points)
Note: This metric measures the percent change in number of small businesses open calculated as a seven-day moving average as of May 23, 2021, seasonally adjusted compared to January 2020. - Real Estate Active Listings vs Pre-COVID Levels: Double Weight (~5.45 Points)
Note: This metric measures the percent change in count of unique Zillow listings that were active at any time in March 2021 compared to March 2019. - Workplace Mobility Index: Full Weight (~2.73 Points)
Note: This metric measures the percentage point increase or decrease in visits for places of work.
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, COVID-19 Electronic Lab Reporting, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Zillow, Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Group, Kaiser Family Foundation, OpenTable, Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, and the Opportunity Insights Team, Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report and Pioneer Works.