July’s jobs report showed much better job growth than the previous month, exceeding expert predictions. The economy gained 943,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, with notable gains in sectors including leisure and hospitality, local government education, and professional and business services.
Now, the U.S. unemployment rate sits at 5.4%, which is still high but is much lower than the nearly historic high of 14.8% in April 2020. This overall drop can be attributed largely to a combination of vaccinations and states loosening restrictions. It will take far more time for us to reduce the unemployment rate to pre-pandemic levels than it did for the virus to reverse over a decade of job growth, though.
In order to identify the states whose unemployment rates are bouncing back most, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on five key metrics that compare unemployment rate statistics from the latest month for which data is available (July 2021) to key dates in 2019 and 2020.
Main Findings
States Whose Unemployment Rates Are Bouncing Back Most
| Overall Rank | State | Unemployment Rate (July 2021) | Change in Unemployment (July 2021 vs July 2019) | Change in Unemployment (July 2021 vs January 2020) | Change in Unemployment (July 2021 vs July 2020) | Not Seasonally Adjusted Continued Claims (July 2021 vs July 2019) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nebraska | 2.3% | -22.8% | -22.4% | -46.9% | 103.5% |
| 2 | Utah | 2.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | -51.4% | 50.1% |
| 3 | Idaho | 3.0% | 9.6% | 17.0% | -48.5% | 4.1% |
| 4 | South Dakota | 2.9% | -3.1% | 0.6% | -44.4% | 42.8% |
| 5 | Alabama | 3.2% | 11.6% | 20.6% | -56.7% | 31.1% |
| 6 | New Hampshire | 2.9% | 10.5% | 11.1% | -64.3% | 154.1% |
| 7 | Vermont | 3.0% | 24.1% | 13.9% | -53.4% | 70.0% |
| 8 | Montana | 3.6% | 1.1% | -1.6% | -45.7% | 40.1% |
| 9 | Kansas | 3.8% | 23.8% | 22.4% | -41.5% | -4.4% |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 3.5% | 13.7% | 13.4% | -51.2% | 144.8% |
| 11 | Minnesota | 3.9% | 21.7% | 19.1% | -50.5% | 124.4% |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 3.9% | 16.6% | 18.9% | -44.6% | 112.0% |
| 13 | Arkansas | 4.3% | 23.6% | 17.6% | -38.1% | 41.6% |
| 14 | Georgia | 3.7% | 7.6% | 11.3% | -48.9% | 269.3% |
| 15 | North Carolina | 4.4% | 15.7% | 23.8% | -48.7% | 96.3% |
| 16 | Iowa | 4.1% | 39.5% | 36.8% | -32.3% | 25.3% |
| 17 | Missouri | 4.2% | 30.0% | 16.4% | -38.9% | 81.9% |
| 18 | Kentucky | 4.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | -20.9% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Michigan | 4.8% | 11.0% | 23.9% | -47.8% | 33.4% |
| 20 | Virginia | 4.2% | 51.7% | 60.2% | -48.3% | 75.4% |
| 21 | West Virginia | 5.0% | 3.0% | -1.0% | -46.2% | 31.8% |
| 22 | North Dakota | 3.9% | 64.3% | 73.0% | -36.8% | 48.5% |
| 23 | Washington | 5.1% | 24.2% | 26.8% | -52.9% | 64.1% |
| 24 | Indiana | 4.1% | 29.7% | 29.5% | -51.6% | 289.5% |
| 25 | Massachusetts | 4.9% | 60.5% | 69.2% | -48.4% | 28.0% |
| 26 | Tennessee | 4.7% | 43.4% | 27.2% | -44.2% | 134.2% |
| 27 | Ohio | 5.4% | 23.5% | 12.4% | -43.9% | 49.2% |
| 28 | South Carolina | 4.3% | 69.9% | 66.5% | -43.6% | 175.5% |
| 29 | Florida | 5.1% | 57.8% | 54.9% | -54.6% | 129.7% |
| 30 | Wyoming | 5.2% | 42.3% | 16.3% | -23.5% | 19.8% |
| 31 | Oregon | 5.2% | 47.2% | 58.6% | -41.6% | 72.7% |
| 32 | Maine | 4.9% | 77.1% | 59.7% | -45.3% | 134.8% |
| 33 | Rhode Island | 5.8% | 53.1% | 45.1% | -58.8% | 80.3% |
| 34 | Delaware | 5.6% | 54.1% | 29.2% | -32.8% | 113.3% |
| 35 | Mississippi | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | -26.3% | 91.6% |
| 36 | Pennsylvania | 6.6% | 43.8% | 31.3% | -50.7% | 62.8% |
| 37 | Alaska | 6.6% | 20.5% | 30.9% | -38.9% | 45.1% |
| 38 | Maryland | 6.0% | 64.7% | 68.9% | -31.5% | 48.8% |
| 39 | Arizona | 6.6% | 38.7% | 38.9% | -36.8% | 46.4% |
| 40 | Texas | 6.2% | 79.8% | 73.6% | -32.6% | 56.0% |
| 41 | District of Columbia | 6.7% | 25.7% | 33.4% | -23.2% | 135.8% |
| 42 | Louisiana | 6.6% | 43.2% | 24.7% | -23.3% | 171.6% |
| 43 | New Jersey | 7.3% | 116.0% | 92.1% | -46.7% | 43.6% |
| 44 | Illinois | 7.1% | 75.3% | 98.0% | -40.6% | 117.3% |
| 45 | Connecticut | 7.3% | 95.8% | 88.0% | -38.2% | 46.4% |
| 46 | New Mexico | 7.6% | 51.3% | 46.4% | -38.7% | 133.3% |
| 47 | Colorado | 6.1% | 142.6% | 129.9% | -14.3% | 112.7% |
| 48 | New York | 7.6% | 96.4% | 96.9% | -48.6% | 117.9% |
| 49 | California | 7.6% | 81.9% | 74.0% | -41.8% | 133.8% |
| 50 | Nevada | 7.7% | 99.8% | 107.5% | -51.5% | 200.8% |
| 51 | Hawaii | 7.3% | 188.1% | 242.4% | -47.9% | 93.0% |
Ask the Experts
In order to provide further insight on U.S. unemployment and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, WalletHub turned to a panel of experts. Click on the pictures of experts below to read their bios and responses to the following key questions:
- What are the best ways for state and local authorities to ensure a cost effective rebound from the economic aftermath of the pandemic?
- What are the most resilient industries and fields during the current crisis?
- What job skills do you think will be the most sought after in the post-coronavirus job market?
Ask the Experts
- Anne Marie Lofaso
J.D. – Arthur B. Hodges Professor of Law, West Virginia University
Read More
- Michael A. Leeds
Ph.D. – Professor of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University
Read More
- Bruce I. Sacerdote
Ph.D. – Professor of Economics, Arts & Sciences Faculty, Dartmouth College
Read More
- Peter Cappelli
George W. Taylor Professor, Professor of Management, Director, Center for Human Resources, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Read More
- Stephanie Luce
Ph.D. – Professor and Department Chair, School of Labor and Urban Studies, Department of Sociology, The Graduate Center, City University of New York
Read More
- David C. Yamada
Professor of Law and Director, New Workplace Institute and Co-Director Employment Law, Suffolk University Boston
Read More
Methodology
In order to determine the states whose unemployment rates are bouncing back most, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across two categories. In the first category, we compared the change in unemployment for the latest month for which we had data (July 2021) to July 2019, July 2020 and January 2020, in order to show the impact since 2019 and since the beginning of last year. We also compared not seasonally adjusted continued claims in July 2021 to July 2019. In the second category, we looked at the state’s overall unemployment rate. We then used the average of those categories to rank-order the states.
Change in Unemployment - Total Points: 50
- Change in Unemployment in July 2021 vs. July 2019: Full Weight (~12.50 Points)
- Change in Unemployment in July 2021 vs. January 2020: Full Weight (~12.50 Points)
- Change in Unemployment in July 2021 vs. July 2020: Full Weight (~12.50 Points)
- Not Seasonally Adjusted Continued Claims in July 2021 vs. July 2019: Full Weight (~12.50 Points)
Unemployment Rate - Total Points: 50
- Unemployment Rate (July 2021): Full Weight (~50.00 Points)
Sources: Data used to create this ranking were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Labor.